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Mike JonesJul 30, 2025

Jones predicted Micah Parsons will eventually sign a deal surpassing T.J. Watt as the NFL's highest-paid pass rusher, that the Hendrickson and McLaurin contract standoffs will get resolved, and ranked Jalen Hurts just behind the league's top four quarterbacks.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

8Miss · out of 100
Finished #16What happenedcalled #5 · by passing yards
66.67A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
8.33This callout of 100
−116.67Skillafter difficulty

What Mike Jones said

Micah Parsons is going to wind up surpassing TJ. Watt as far as the highest paid pass rusher.
Our reading: Jalen Hurts to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards
The episode
Hour 2 - NFL predictions
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJul 30, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 8.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Where this call stands in the room

Jalen Hurts · 2025 season · positional finish

3 calls from 3 pundits between 5 positional finish and 16 positional finish. Mike Jones said 5 positional finish. the room's median is 5 positional finish. what happened: 16 positional finish

Mike Jones — 5 positional finishthe room — 3 calls from 3 punditsmedian 5 positional finishwhat happened — 16 positional finish

Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question, before the answer existed. The bar is what actually happened. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
5They said
16What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Positional FinishesJalen HurtsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Jalen Hurts to finish top 5 at his position, by passing yards

    What happenedFinished #16called #5 · by passing yards
    8.33Miss · naive 66.67
    8.33this call66.67a naive guess−58.34worse than naive2difficulty−116.67skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −116.67
    player:
    Jalen Hurts
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    8.33
    baseline:
    66.67
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    passing yards
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    20
    actual finish:
    16
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    5
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.