Matt MillerFeb 26, 2026
Miller's mock draft has Mendoza first to the Raiders, Arbel Reese second to the Jets, Miami tackle Mala Noah third to Arizona, Bane fourth to the Titans, Cornell Tate to the Giants, and Jeremiah Love to New Orleans at No. 8, with Ty Simpson barely a first-rounder.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Matt Miller said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromJeremiah Love is my top player in the class.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 1: Live from the NFL Combine with ESPN’s Matt Miller, CBS Sports’ Charles Davis & Rich’s Top 5
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 26
- GradedOct 1
- 1Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8“Jeremiah Love, you have him winding up in New Orleans... why would Kellen Moore pass on an offensive weapon like this guy at eight? And your your thought is he won't. They won't.”
- 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“Your mock draft, you have Fernando Mendoza at one.”
- 3Carnell Tate to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“Cornell Tate, you have them going receiver rather than Caleb Downs ... I look at Cornell Tate as a six foot three, two hundred pound, excellent route runner, opposite the speed of Malik Neighbors.”
- 4Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2“So the Jets at two in your mock, you have Arbel Reese. ... And for the Jets, that's exactly what he could be.”
- 5Ty Simpson to be picked “barely in the first round” (picks 1–32)“is is Simpson in your first round? Barely.”
- 6Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3“On the third overall selection, you wind up with Maui Goa going from, the left side of the Miami offensive line going to Arizona.”
- 7B.J. to be picked at number 4“And now you had Bane fourth to the, Titans. ... So Bane at four, the tape says, yeah. He's pretty good. He's probably worth number four.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 81 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 3 | 80.52 | 50 | +20 | |
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | +20 | |
| Carnell Tate to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)3 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 4 | 100 | 50 | +20 | |
| Arvell Reese to be picked at number 24 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 5 | 87.81 | 50 | +20 | |
| Ty Simpson to be picked “barely in the first round” (picks 1–32)5 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 13 | 100 | 50 | +20 | |
| Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 36 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 10 | 73.84 | 50 | +20 | |
| B.J. to be picked at number 47 | Mock Draft Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 5 hits · 1 close call · 1 waiting | 90.4 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 7 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 90.4 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveNew Orleans Saints
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 8
What happenedWent 3mocked at 880.52Hit · naive 5070this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=20better than naive×1difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
2Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 5070this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=20better than naive×1difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
3Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateNew York Giants
Carnell Tate to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 4100Hit · naive 5070this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=20better than naive×1difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
4Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York Jets
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
What happenedWent 5mocked at 287.81Hit · naive 5070this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=20better than naive×1difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
Ty Simpson to be picked “barely in the first round” (picks 1–32)
What happenedWent 13100Hit · naive 5070this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=20better than naive×1difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- barely in the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
6Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona Cardinals
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
What happenedWent 10mocked at 373.84Close · naive 5070this mock’s order−50a shuffled mock=20better than naive×1difficulty=+20skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 20
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 70
7Mock Draft PicksB.J.Tennessee Titans
B.J. to be picked at number 4
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
90.4naive 50
Who this take is about
Jeremiyah Love, New Orleans Saints, Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders, Carnell Tate, New York Giants, Arvell Reese, New York Jets, Ty Simpson, Francis Mauigoa, Arizona Cardinals, B.J., Tennessee Titans
Others on the same people
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picked the Giants to beat the Commanders at home in the Thursday night Week 10 game, 23-14, citing New York's dominant front seven containing Jayden Daniels.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.