Tom Bevan· Sep 28, 2026
Bevan argued the Senate map has tipped toward Democrats: North Carolina and Georgia are heading to the Democrats, South Carolina will still stay Republican despite a surprising poll, and the Republicans' best realistic outcome in the Senate is a 50-50 tie rather than any net gain.
“North Carolina looks like, it's a state that is is going to go Democrat.”
said on air, transcribed by us · RealClearPolitics Podcast · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 28, 2026
“And North Carolina looks like, it's a state that is is going to go Democrat.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 28, 2026
“And, you know, Georgia's another one. Republicans are you know, any money invested in Georgia right now is probably just, you know, burning it”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 28, 2026
“he has, Darlene Graham up one point in South Carolina... Still, it's hard to imagine that it will vote for a Democrat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsSep 28, 2026
“I think best case scenario is they they end up with a tie. You know, and JD Vance can can break ties, but the the idea that they would actually gain seats in the selection seems, at this point, very unlikely.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.