Mark Morales-SmithAug 5, 2026
Morales-Smith names four running backs as 2026 fantasy busts to avoid: Christian McCaffrey (injury risk, declining efficiency at a top-three ADP), Josh Jacobs (declining yardage as a fringe RB1), Kyren Williams (capped ceiling from a Blake Corum timeshare), and Breece Hall (stuck in a weak Jets offense with competition for touches).
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Mark Morales-Smith said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromWith the looming injury risk and declining efficiency, we can't buy into McCaffrey at his ADP.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Fantasy Football Running Back Busts To Avoid: Breece Hall Is Risky, But Three Higher Ranked RBs Are Riskier
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- 1Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (a fringe RB1)“Jacobs is being drafted as a fringe RB1, and better options are being drafted behind him.”
- 2Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (being drafted as a top three fantasy running back)“CMC is being drafted as a top three fantasy running back this season. He is far too risky to buy into that and draft him that high.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (a fringe RB1)1 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (being drafted as a top three fantasy running back)2 | Fantasy Bust Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 2 calls · 2 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
2 checkable claims — 2 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Fantasy Bust CallsJosh JacobsGreen Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (a fringe RB1)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Fantasy Bust CallsChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (being drafted as a top three fantasy running back)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Bill Huber · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite their rib injury. They also sketch the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard.Derek Brown · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Brown picked the Bengals to beat the Falcons in Madrid, the Packers to win outright in New England and the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night. They were bullish on Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season value, expected Jonathan Taylor to play for the Colts, floated a Breece Hall trade, and did not expect DJ Reed to play in Week 9.Danny Parkins · Game Outcome Picks · Green Bay Packers · Hit 100
Parkins named the seven AFC teams they believe are already set as the playoff field, expects Chicago, Buffalo and Kansas City to win this week, took Green Bay over New England and Atlanta over Cincinnati outright, and kept Bills–Bears as their Super Bowl matchup with the Giants still winning the NFC East.AJ Hawk · Game Outcome Picks · San Francisco 49ers · Hit 100
Hawk said the Chiefs would beat the Jets, the Seahawks would beat the Cardinals, and the 49ers would beat the Raiders, even while taking the points with the underdogs in each case.
More fantasy bust calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Fantasy Bust Calls · Zay Flowers · Miss 0
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Fantasy Bust Calls · Austin Ekeler · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Fantasy Bust Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Pat Fitzmaurice · Fantasy Bust Calls · Breece Hall · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.