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Brian BosargeApr 14, 2026

Bosarge's seven-round mock gives Buffalo Indiana WR Omar Cooper at 26, TCU linebacker Caleb Elarms Orr at 91, Michigan defensive lineman Rayshawn Benny at 126, Michal Camara at 165, safety Lewis Moore at 168, and Stanford cornerback Colin Wright at 220.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Bills (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 6calls landed1 hit · 5 misses · all settled
17.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6 of 6Settlednone still waiting
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Brian Bosarge said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Getting a dependable target like Cooper late in the first would help a lot.
Brian Bosarge, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Locked On Bills (podcast)
The episode
Bills’ MOCK DRAFT Roundup: What ACTUALLY Makes the Most Sense for Buffalo in 2026 NFL Draft?
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidApr 14
  2. GradedAug 14
  1. 1Kaleb Elarms-Orr to be picked at number 91“Round three, pick 91. It's Caleb Elarms Orr, the linebacker from TCU”
  2. 2Omar Cooper to be picked at number 26“Pick, 26, Omar Cooper, the wide receiver out of Indiana.”
  3. 3Louis Moore to be picked at number 168“At one sixty eight, it's Lewis Moore, a safety out of Indiana.”
  4. 4Rayshaun Benny to be picked at number 126“Round four, pick one twenty six. It's Rayshawn Benny, defensive lineman from Michigan.”
  5. 5Mikail Kamara to be picked at number 165“at one sixty five, it's Michal Camara out of Indiana. That's an edge rusher.”
  6. 6Collin Wright to be picked at number 220“And at pick two twenty in the seventh round, it's Colin Wright, a cornerback out of Stanford.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Kaleb Elarms-Orr to be picked at number 911Mock Draft PicksWent 12621.9550+50
Omar Cooper to be picked at number 262Mock Draft PicksWent 3084.0950+50
Louis Moore to be picked at number 1683Mock Draft PicksWent undrafted050+50
Rayshaun Benny to be picked at number 1264Mock Draft PicksWent 2500.4650+50
Mikail Kamara to be picked at number 1655Mock Draft PicksWent undrafted050+50
Collin Wright to be picked at number 2206Mock Draft PicksWent undrafted050+50
6 calls · 1 hit · 5 misses · all settled17.850

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 17.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
91They said
126What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksKaleb Elarms-OrrBuffalo Bills

    Kaleb Elarms-Orr to be picked at number 91

    What happenedWent 126mocked at 91
    21.95Miss · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Kaleb Elarms-Orr
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    21.95
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    126
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    21.95
    predicted pick:
    91
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksOmar CooperBuffalo Bills

    Omar Cooper to be picked at number 26

    What happenedWent 30mocked at 26
    84.09Hit · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Omar Cooper
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    84.09
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    30
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    84.09
    predicted pick:
    26
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Mock Draft PicksLouis MooreBuffalo Bills

    Louis Moore to be picked at number 168

    What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 168
    0Miss · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Louis Moore
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; later signed with MIA
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    168
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksRayshaun BennyBuffalo Bills

    Rayshaun Benny to be picked at number 126

    What happenedWent 250mocked at 126
    0.46Miss · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Rayshaun Benny
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    0.46
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    250
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0.46
    predicted pick:
    126
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Mock Draft PicksMikail KamaraBuffalo Bills

    Mikail Kamara to be picked at number 165

    What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 165
    0Miss · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Mikail Kamara
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; later signed with SF
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    165
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Mock Draft PicksCollin WrightBuffalo Bills

    Collin Wright to be picked at number 220

    What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 220
    0Miss · naive 50
    100this mock’s order50a shuffled mock50better than naive1difficulty+50skill
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    skill:
    50
    player:
    Collin Wright
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; later signed with HOU
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    220
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    100
    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once

    17.8naive 50

Who this take is about

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