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Jacob RubashkinJul 17, 2024

Rubashkin said the winner of the Democratic primary in New Jersey's 10th District is certain to win the September 18 special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne and will soon join Congress.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections PodcastHear the original

100Hit · out of 100
LaMonica McIver wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Jacob Rubashkin said

She will be a shoo in for the very strange September 18 special election
Our reading: LaMonica McIver to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 10
Where it was said
The Inside Elections Podcast
The episode
Episode 27: Assassination Attempt, Republican National Convention, New Michigan Poll from Milwaukee
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidJul 17, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    LaMonica McIver to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 10

    What happenedLaMonica McIver woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.15difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2024-house-nj-10
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2024-house
    who won:
    LaMonica McIver
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2024 U.S. House election in New Jersey's district 10
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    LaMonica McIver
    days before the vote when called:
    110
    difficulty:
    1.15
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
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