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Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 3, 2025

Brockman floats a series of overreactions: the Titans won't make the first overall pick because someone trades up, at least six quarterbacks and running backs combined go in round one, Shedeur Sanders falls out of the top 10, the Rams win the NFC West, the Commanders become the team to beat in the NFC, and Sam Darnold leaves Minnesota for $50 million a year.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · all settled
60Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
25.4A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.
Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode
NFL Combine Recap: Shedeur Sanders Will Fall Out Of The Top 10
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidMar 3, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13–Sep 18, 2026
  1. 1Sam Darnold to move“Sam Darnold... Not coming back to the Vikings, and he's gonna get $50,000,000 a year in his new deal.”
  2. 2Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl“Adding Deebo puts the commanders as the team to beat in the NFC.”
  3. 3Los Angeles Rams to win the division“With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025.”
  4. 4Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)“Shador Sanders. Yes. He's gonna fall out of the top 10.”
  5. 5Tennessee Titans to pick at number 1“the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Sam Darnold to move1Trade and Signing CallsEnded up with SEA1000+200
Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl2Conference ChampionsNE and SEA won000
Los Angeles Rams to win the division3Division Winners—000
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)4Mock Draft PicksWent 14410050—
Tennessee Titans to pick at number 15Team Draft Slot CallsPicked at 110077.11+45.78
5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled6025.4

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

5 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 division winner, 1 mock draft pick, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 25.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Trade and Signing CallsSam Darnold

    Sam Darnold to move

    What happenedEnded up with SEA
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    200
    player:
    Sam Darnold
    season:
    2025
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    MIN
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    ended up with:
    SEA
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Conference ChampionsWashington Commanders

    Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl

    What happenedNE and SEA wonpicked WAS
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champions:
    NE, SEA
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's conference champions
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    reached the Super Bowl:
    no
    lost the conference final:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Division WinnersLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksShedeur Sanders

    Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)

    What happenedWent 144
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Shedeur Sanders
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    144
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    fall out of the top 10 (NOT picks 1–10)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Team Draft Slot CallsTennessee Titans

    Tennessee Titans to pick at number 1

    What happenedPicked at 1called 1
    100Hit · naive 77.11
    100this call77.11a naive guess22.89better than naive2difficulty+45.78skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    TEN
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    they picked 7 the year before
    skill:
    45.78
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    77.11
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    60naive 25.4

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

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