Chris Brockman· Mar 3, 2025
Brockman floats a series of overreactions: the Titans won't make the first overall pick because someone trades up, at least six quarterbacks and running backs combined go in round one, Shedeur Sanders falls out of the top 10, the Rams win the NFC West, the Commanders become the team to beat in the NFC, and Sam Darnold leaves Minnesota for $50 million a year.
“the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
5 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 division winner, 1 mock draft pick, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 25.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Trade and Signing CallsSam DarnoldMar 3, 2025
Sam Darnold to move
“Sam Darnold... Not coming back to the Vikings, and he's gonna get $50,000,000 a year in his new deal.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Sam Darnold
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- MIN
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- SEA
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Conference ChampionsWashington CommandersMar 3, 2025
Washington Commanders to reach the Super Bowl
“Adding Deebo puts the commanders as the team to beat in the NFC.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Division WinnersLos Angeles RamsMar 3, 2025
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
“With him staying put, the NFC West Rams division to lose in 2025.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- won the division:
- no
- Mock Draft PicksShedeur SandersMar 3, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
“Shador Sanders. Yes. He's gonna fall out of the top 10.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 144
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- fall out of the top 10 (NOT picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
- Team Draft Slot CallsTennessee TitansMar 3, 2025
Tennessee Titans to pick at number 1
“the Titans won't be making the first overall pick. Someone's gonna move up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 77.11+45.78 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TEN
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 7 the year before
- skill:
- 45.78
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 77.11
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Jared DubinScore Predictions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 43Dubin gave final-score predictions for the same eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Vikings, Ravens, Rams and Eagles.
- Colin CowherdGame Outcome Picks · Tennessee TitansMiss · 0The co-host (identified only as "Mitchell") made his own Week 3 picks, including blowout wins for Seattle and San Francisco, Cincinnati 27-17, Detroit 37-13, Denver 24-21 over the Rams, and predicted Jonah Coleman takes over the Broncos' running back role.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.
- Gregg RosenthalConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Rosenthal picks the Patriots to beat the Broncos in a close, low-scoring AFC Championship in Denver (while liking Denver to cover the 4.5 points), takes the Seahawks over the Rams in a defensive NFC Championship he pegs around 23-19, and forecasts a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.