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David Nir#17 of 21 election pundits · Oct 2, 2024

In describing Rep. Raul Grijalva's plans to retire in 2026, the digest states they will comfortably win another term this November in Arizona's heavily Democratic 7th District.

Published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter)Read the original

100Hit · out of 100
Raúl Grijalva wonWhat happenedcertified result
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
#17David Nir’s rankof 21 ranked election pundits

What David Nir said

The 76-year-old congressman, who is set to easily win a final term next month in Arizona's safely blue 7th District
Our reading: Raul Grijalva to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 7
Where it was published
The Downballot (newsletter)
The piece
Morning Digest: New ad shows Nebraskans how to complete ballots to restore abortion rights
The original
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  1. SaidOct 2, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Raul Grijalva to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 7

    What happenedRaúl Grijalva woncertified result
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.05difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    yes
    race:
    2024-house-az-07
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2024-house
    who won:
    Raúl Grijalva
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2024 U.S. House election in Arizona's district 7
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Raúl Grijalva
    days before the vote when called:
    33
    difficulty:
    1.05
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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