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Jack AndradeMar 4, 2025

Relayed by Daniel Jeremiah as researcher Jack's shocker pick: the Bears take Gray Zabel at No. 10 overall.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

71Close · out of 100
Went 18What happenedmocked at 10
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
70.71This callout of 100
—Skillafter difficulty

What Jack Andrade said

For the Shaker, the Bears take Gray Zabel at ten.
Our reading: Grey Zabel to be picked at number 10
Where it was said
Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode
2025 NFL Combine Breakdown: Full Position-by-Position Recap + Top Risers
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidMar 4, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 70.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
10They said
18What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Mock Draft PicksGrey ZabelChicago Bears

    Grey Zabel to be picked at number 10

    What happenedWent 18mocked at 10
    70.71Close · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2025
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Grey Zabel
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    70.71
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    18
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    70.71
    predicted pick:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

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