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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 16, 2026

Dubin predicted a lopsided Ravens win over the Browns, 31-14, and had the Packers beating the Cowboys 33-28 on Sunday night.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
52.4Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
84.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
If he does, I think the Ravens win this game by a lot.
Jared Dubin, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
NFL Week 6 odds, predictions, expert picks: Cowboys roll into Lambeau Field to face Packers
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidOct 16
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 18–19
  1. 1Green Bay Packers 33 — Cowboys 28“Jared Dubin on why he has Green Bay winning, 33-28.”
  2. 2Baltimore Ravens 31 — Browns 14“Jared Dubin on why he has Baltimore coming away with the 31-14 win over Cleveland.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Green Bay Packers 33 — Cowboys 281Score PredictionsPackers 23–1388.176.55+19.85
Baltimore Ravens 31 — Browns 142Score PredictionsBrowns 13–1016.6792.86−131.05
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled52.484.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 52.4 out of 100, against 84.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers 33 — Cowboys 28

    What happenedPackers 23–13called Packers by 5 · won by 10
    88.1Hit · naive 76.55
    88.1this call76.55a naive guess11.55better than naive1.72difficulty+19.85skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Cowboys by 1.5, total 53.5 · this 33–28 calls a Packers win (by 5; the line gave the Packers 49%) and more points (61).

    How this was scored
    score:
    13-23
    skill:
    19.85
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    88.1
    baseline:
    76.55
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0.15
    predicted margin:
    5
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsBaltimore Ravens

    Baltimore Ravens 31 — Browns 14

    What happenedBrowns 13–10called Ravens by 17 · lost by 3
    16.67Miss · naive 92.86
    16.67this call92.86a naive guess−76.19worse than naive1.72difficulty−131.05skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Ravens by 3, total 39.5 · this 31–14 calls a bigger Ravens win (by 17) and more points (45).

    How this was scored
    score:
    10-13
    skill:
    −131.05
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    16.67
    baseline:
    92.86
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    13
    naive home margin:
    0
    predicted margin:
    17
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    52.4naive 84.7

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