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Marc ShortNov 6, 2022

Short predicted Republicans would gain 20 to 25 House seats, take the Senate, and that Blake Masters would win Arizona's Senate race.

Said on air, transcribed by us · State of the Union (CNN)Hear the original

0 of 3calls landed1 close call · 2 misses · all settled
15Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
85A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Marc Short said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think we pick up the senate, and I actually think we're gonna win a couple of governor's mansions.
Marc Short, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
State of the Union (CNN)
The episode
Exclusive interviews with: Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee Ronna McDaniel, and Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidNov 6, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Blake Masters to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona“I feel like Blake Masters is gonna win Arizona because reality is that the border is a serious issue down there.”
  2. 2Control of Congress“I think we pick up the senate”
  3. 3Seat Counts“now he's on the cusp of winning 20 to 25 additional seats”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Blake Masters to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona1Race WinnersMark Kelly won0100−100
“I think we pick up the senate”2Control of Congress—0100−100
“now he's on the cusp of winning 20 to 25 additional seats”3Seat Counts94555−10
3 calls · 1 close call · 2 misses · all settled1585

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 1 control of congres, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 15 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Blake Masters to win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona

    What happenedMark Kelly woncalled Blake Masters
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-senate-az
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2022
    who won:
    Mark Kelly
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Blake Masters
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Control of Congress

    “I think we pick up the senate”

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −100
    topic:
    elections
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    who controls it:
    Democratic
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    they said:
    Republican
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    the naive guess:
    the party in control going in keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    who controlled it before:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Seat Counts

    “now he's on the cusp of winning 20 to 25 additional seats”

    What happened9called 20 to 25 additional seats
    45Close · naive 55
    45this call55a naive guess−10worse than naive1difficulty−10skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    222
    skill:
    −10
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    9
    in their words:
    20 to 25 additional seats
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
    chamber:
    2022-house
    what they counted:
    net seats
    accuracy:
    45
    baseline:
    55
    days before the vote when called:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    seats before:
    213
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    their range:
    20 to 25
    the naive guess said:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    15naive 85

The race in this take

every call on each
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More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.