Pat Fitzmaurice#8 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 5, 2025
Fitzmaurice ranks Darren Waller around TE40, touts T.J. Higgins as a low-end WR1 value, Kenneth Walker as a top-12 back if healthy, Stefon Diggs in the ninth round, Drake Maye as a QB1 finisher with big rushing upside, Luther Burden as an ADP-beater, and Javonte Williams as Dallas's lead back.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Fitzmaurice said
I think Drake May is going to give us a QB one fantasy finish this year.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - 12 Draft Picks With MASSIVE UPSIDE You Should Be Targeting in 2025 (Ep. 1603)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJul 4, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleeper Calls | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Player Season Numbers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
How each call scored
12 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 3 positional finishes, 2 depth chart calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 16 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 12 have settled, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 44.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Sleeper Calls3 hits · 3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Tee Higgins to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirteen, twenty nine overall)
“He's currently what wide receiver thirteen... but now I've got him ranked as a low end wide receiver one. He's my wide receiver twelve, number twenty four overall... here's why t Higgins has such vast upside and why I think you should proactively draft him.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirteen, twenty nine overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tee Higgins
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR19
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (his mid fourth round cost)
“So what is it that has to go right for Kenneth Walker to return? A nice profit on his mid fourth round cost.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- his mid fourth round cost
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- cost round:
- 4
- had to beat:
- RB13
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — his mid fourth round cost
Luther Burden III to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver ECR fifty three)
“If Luthor Burton is the Bears primary slot man and things start to click for Caleb Williams, like Burton could dramatically OutKick his ADP”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver ECR fifty three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Luther Burden III
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR49
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Drake Maye to outplay his draft cost (QB sixteen)
“you think there's massive upside at QB sixteen with Drake May... I have him at QB eight, and that is really aggressive.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- QB sixteen
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Darnell Mooney to outplay his draft cost (their current prices)
“there is room for London, Pits and Mooney to all return a profit, I think at their current prices... So yes, I love this call.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- their current prices
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Darnell Mooney
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR31
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR80
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Stefon Diggs to outplay his draft cost (the ninth round of drafts)
“If we get ninety percent of that sort of production, and we can get it in the ninth round of drafts, like sign me up”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- the ninth round of drafts
- naive:
- the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Stefon Diggs
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- cost round:
- 9
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR24
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the cost the source quoted — the ninth round of drafts
Depth Chart Calls1 hit · 1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Javonte Williams to be 1st on the depth chart
“and it seems like he's going to get the first crack at being the league guy for Dallas this year”
No. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- DAL
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Javonte Williams
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Ray-Ray McCloud to be 3rd on the depth chart
“And like, who of the Falcons added at wide receiver in the off season, it's gonna be like Ray Ray McCloud is the number three”
No. 6called No. 3 · by receptions75Close75 − 75 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Ray-Ray McCloud
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 3
- actual slot:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Positional Finishes3 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Drake Maye to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“so I think Drake May is going to give us a QB one fantasy finish this year”
Finished #2called #12 · by fantasy points16.67Miss16.67 − 0 naive = 16.67 × 2 difficulty = +33.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 33.33
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 16.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 22
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Kenneth Walker III to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“Obviously, stay healthy, give us sixteen or seventeen games. If he does that, I think he's gonna finish as a top twelve running back.”
Finished #21called #12 · by fantasy points25Miss25 − 33.33 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Kenneth Walker III
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 25
- baseline:
- 33.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 29
- actual finish:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 12
Darren Waller to finish top 40 at his position, by fantasy points
“When I plugged him into the rankings this morning, I think it was a tight end forty.”
Finished #27called #40 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Darren Waller
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at TE
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 12
- actual finish:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 40
Player Season Numbers1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Drake Maye to record 800 rushing yards
“I think Drake May could get to eight hundred rushing yards based on how aggressively he ran in college.”
450called 80012.5Miss12.5 − 25.8 naive = −13.3 × 2 difficulty = −26.6 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 283.05
- skill:
- −26.6
- what happened:
- 450
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 12.5
- baseline:
- 25.8
- they said:
- 800
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 421
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 145.1
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Who this take is about
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals, Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks, Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears, Drake Maye, New England Patriots, Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons, Stefon Diggs, Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys, Ray-Ray McCloud, Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins
Others on the same people
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Rosenthal gave their award ballot: Drake May atop their MVP list (though they expect Matthew Stafford to actually win), Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year, Bijan Robinson for Offensive Player of the Year, Tetairoa McMillan for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Carson Schwesinger for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mike Macdonald for Coach of the Year and Broncos O-line coach Zach Strief for Assistant Coach of the Year. They also expect Kirk Cousins to be cut by Atlanta.John Middlekauff · Draft Bust Calls · Caleb Williams · Miss 0
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More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · RJ Harvey · Hit 100
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.