David Nir#17 of 21 election pundits · Sep 11, 2024
Assessed two post-primary general elections: Democrat Matt Meyer is favored to win Delaware's governorship over Republican Mike Ramone, and Democrats are favored to hold New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District.
Published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter)Read the original
2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
What David Nir said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromMeyer will be favored against state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone, who won the Republican primary over two little-known foes, for an office the GOP last won in 1988.
- Where it was published
- The Downballot (newsletter)
- The piece
- Morning Digest: Why Democrats can win New Hampshire's governorship—and maybe a trifecta
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 11, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Matt Meyer to win the 2024 Delaware gubernatorial election“Meyer will be favored against state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone, who won the Republican primary over two little-known foes, for an office the GOP last won in 1988 .”
- 2Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 2“While Republicans would like to contest the 2nd District, which is based in northern and western New Hampshire, Democrats will be favored to hold this seat, which favored Joe Biden 54-45.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Meyer to win the 2024 Delaware gubernatorial election1 | Race Winners | Matt Meyer won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 22 | Race Winners | Maggie Goodlander won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 2 hits · all settled | 100 | 100 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Matt Meyer to win the 2024 Delaware gubernatorial election
What happenedMatt Meyer woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.07difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-governor-de
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- will be favored
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-governor
- who won:
- Matt Meyer
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 Delaware gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Matt Meyer
- days before the vote when called:
- 54
- difficulty:
- 1.07
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Democrats to win the 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 2
What happenedMaggie Goodlander woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.07difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-nh-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- in their words:
- Democrats will be favored to hold this seat
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Maggie Goodlander
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Maggie Goodlander
- days before the vote when called:
- 54
- difficulty:
- 1.07
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 100
The races in this take
every call on eachMore race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.