Chris Brockman· Dec 23, 2024
Brockman argued Michael Penix will lead Atlanta to a playoff win and that the Falcons will win the NFC South, that the Vikings are the league's best team, that MVP is a two-horse race he leans toward Lamar Jackson, and that the Chiefs — flaws and all — will win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
“The Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersAtlanta FalconsDec 23, 2024
Atlanta Falcons to win the division
“It's not just hot or overreacting to say they're gonna win the division. They're in first place right now.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-117 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -117
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- won the division:
- no
- Conference ChampionsKansas City ChiefsDec 23, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
“But the Chiefs are winning the AFC. ... They're going to the Super Bowl. They're gonna go to New Orleans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
- Award PicksLamar JacksonDec 23, 2024
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
“for me, MVP is a two horse race between Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff ... Lamar is gonna win his third MVP”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
- John MiddlekauffGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Middlekauff expects blowout wins for Seattle over Washington and Kansas City over Miami in Week 3, picks Cincinnati to beat Pittsburgh in the AFC North matchup, and takes Tennessee over the Giants if Jameis Winston is taking snaps.
- Alain PoupartScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsClose · 74Previewing the Week 3 home opener, he predicted the Chiefs would comfortably beat the Dolphins, saying Miami's defense couldn't contain Kansas City and its offense wasn't ready for a shootout.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.
- Connor "Boston Connor" CampbellConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.