Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 23, 2024
Brockman argued Michael Penix will lead Atlanta to a playoff win and that the Falcons will win the NFC South, that the Vikings are the league's best team, that MVP is a two-horse race they lean toward Lamar Jackson, and that the Chiefs — flaws and all — will win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl in New Orleans.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Brockman said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl.
- Where it was said
- Overreaction Monday (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Week 16: The Vikings Are The Best Team In The NFL
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidDec 23, 2024
- GradedAug 13–17, 2026
- 1Atlanta Falcons to win the division“It's not just hot or overreacting to say they're gonna win the division. They're in first place right now.”
- 2Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“But the Chiefs are winning the AFC. ... They're going to the Super Bowl. They're gonna go to New Orleans”
- 3Lamar Jackson to win MVP“for me, MVP is a two horse race between Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff ... Lamar is gonna win his third MVP”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 100 | −117 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl2 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Lamar Jackson to win MVP3 | Award Picks | Josh Allen won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled | 33.3 | 66.7 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive3 checkable claims — 1 award pick, 1 conference champion and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.17difficulty=−117skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −117
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- ATL
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- won the division:
- no
2Conference ChampionsKansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked KC100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- reached the Super Bowl:
- yes
- lost the conference final:
- no
Lamar Jackson to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen woncalled Lamar Jackson0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.17difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Lamar Jackson
- season:
- 2024
- who won:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.17
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 3
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
33.3naive 66.7
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.Connor "Boston Connor" Campbell · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
Connor expects a tight first half in Denver before New England pulls away in the second half and advances to the Super Bowl.