Mark Halperin· Oct 23, 2024
Halperin forecast that Republicans would end up with a Senate majority in the low-to-mid 50s, saying many races could still break their way.
“I think Republicans will be anywhere from 52 to 56 seats at this point.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seat CountsOct 23, 2024
“Well well, I mean, I think Republicans will be anywhere from 52 to 56 seats at this point.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 20+81.6 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 53
- skill:
- 81.6
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 53
- in their words:
- anywhere from 52 to 56 seats
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- what they counted:
- total_seats
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 20
- days before the vote when called:
- 12
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- seats before:
- 49
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- their range:
- 52,56
- the naive guess said:
- 49
More seat counts
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Sam WangSeat CountsClose · 55Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.
- Erick-Woods EricksonSeat CountsClose · 75He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats.
- Lakshya JainSeat CountsHit · 80Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races.
- Daniel HorowitzSeat CountsHit · 95Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio.
- Steve DeaceSeat CountsHit · 80Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
- Isaac SaulSeat CountsHit · 100Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump.