Nate Tice· Apr 8, 2025
In a first-round mock draft on NFL Daily, Tice made the odd-numbered picks, starting with Cam Ward to the Titans at No. 1 and running through Josh Simmons to the Chiefs at 31. He also pegged Grey Zabel as a back-half-of-round-one talent.
“Number one pick Titans going with Cam Woord quarterback.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
17 checkable claims — 17 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 33 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 17 have settled, averaging 77.6 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Grey Zabel
- Armand Membou
- New Orleans Saints
- Mike Green
- Atlanta Falcons
- Derrick Harmon
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Shemar Stewart
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Shavon Revel Jr.
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Kenneth Grant
- Green Bay Packers
- Josh Conerly Jr.
- Houston Texans
- Donovan Jackson
- Baltimore Ravens
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- Washington Commanders
- Mason Graham
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Abdul Carter
- New York Giants
- Cam Ward
- Tennessee Titans
- Josh Simmons
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Malaki Starks
- Miami Dolphins
- Mykel Williams
- San Francisco 49ers
- Colston Loveland
- New York Jets
17 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksGrey ZabelApr 8, 2025
Grey Zabel to be picked “an eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's an eighteen to thirty type player, you know, or just say back half of this first round”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.12 against a shuffle’s 50+39.12 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.12
- player:
- Grey Zabel
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- an eighteen to thirty type player... back half of this first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.12
Armand Membou to be picked at number 9
“Well, I'm gonna go with Memboo because that's where I was kind of leaning anyways (Saints at No. 9)”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 89.12 against a shuffle’s 50+39.12 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 39.12
- player:
- Armand Membou
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 89.12
- Mock Draft PicksMike GreenAtlanta FalconsApr 8, 2025
Mike Green to be picked at number 15
“I am having Mike Green go to the Falcons”
Miss · 15Scored 14.87 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Mike Green
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 14.87
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 59
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 14.87
- predicted pick:
- 15
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Derrick Harmon to be picked at number 17
“I'm going to go with Derek Harmon here from Oregon (Bengals)”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Derrick Harmon
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 21
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Shemar Stewart to be picked at number 19
“I'm gonna go with Schamar Stewart from Texas A and m Okay (Buccaneers)”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Shemar Stewart
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 17
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Shavon Revel Jr. to be picked at number 21
“I'm gonna go savone ravel Wow, okay, yes, Corner East Carolina (Steelers at 21)”
Miss · 9Scored 9.23 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Shavon Revel Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 9.23
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 76
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 9.23
- predicted pick:
- 21
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 23
“I'm gonna go Kenneth Grant, oh Michigan... Kenneth Grant Packers”
Close · 65Scored 64.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Kenneth Grant
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 64.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 64.84
- predicted pick:
- 23
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Josh Conerly Jr. to be picked at number 25
“Josh Connerly here from Oregon offensive tackle... But that is with the Texans”
Hit · 84Scored 84.09 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Josh Conerly Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 29
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 25
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 27
“I'm gonna go Donovan Jackson Ohio State (Ravens)”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Donovan Jackson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 24
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 27
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at number 29
“That's where I'm going with Donovan. Is a rockup from Boston College (Commanders)”
Close · 52Scored 52.21 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Donovan Ezeiruaku
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 52.21
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 44
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 52.21
- predicted pick:
- 29
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Mason Graham to be picked at number 5
“So that's why I'm going to go with Mason Graham. Okay, defensive tackle. (Jaguars at No. 5)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Mason Graham
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
- Mock Draft PicksAbdul CarterNew York GiantsApr 8, 2025
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
“But I'm gonna go I'm gonna duel Carter, who I think is a very good prospect... just skim him on this roster (Giants at No. 3)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Abdul Carter
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
- Mock Draft PicksCam WardTennessee TitansApr 8, 2025
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
“number one pick Titans going with Cam Woord quarterback”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Cam Ward
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 31
“I am going to go Josh Simmons over Banks... yeah, Simmons, Josh Simmons, Ohio State (Chiefs)”
Hit · 96Scored 95.76 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Josh Simmons
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 31
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
- Mock Draft PicksMalaki StarksMiami DolphinsApr 8, 2025
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 13
“Malachi Stark's safety from Georgia, who's kind of dropped a little bit, but I think this is the start of his range (Dolphins)”
Close · 55Scored 54.53 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Malaki Starks
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 54.53
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 27
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 54.53
- predicted pick:
- 13
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 11
“Actually I'm gonna go with Mikel Williams. Actually here this is a little rich (49ers at No. 11)”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Mykel Williams
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
Colston Loveland to be picked at number 7
“I'm gonna go Coulson Love one woow, Michigan... So I'm gonna go call some level in here and the Jets”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 86.96 against a shuffle’s 50+36.96 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 36.96
- player:
- Colston Loveland
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 86.96
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Max IheanachorHit · 88Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Carnell TateHit · 92Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day.