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Allan LichtmanSep 9, 2024

Applying their 13 "keys" model, Lichtman forecast that Kamala Harris would defeat Donald Trump and become the first woman president, arguing the White House party falls well short of the six keys needed to predict defeat.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Donald Trump wonWhat happenedcalled Kamala Harris
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Allan Lichtman said

I am predicting we're gonna have a path breaking president. The first woman president of The United States
Our reading: Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
Where it was said
Rising (The Hill)
The episode
Trump And Harris A HAIR STRAND Apart In New Poll, Bernie Sanders defends Kamala Harris,
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidSep 9, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election

    What happenedDonald Trump woncalled Kamala Harris
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.08difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2024-president
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2024-president
    who won:
    Donald Trump
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2024 U.S. presidential election
    decided in the:
    electoral-college
    they said:
    Kamala Harris
    days before the vote when called:
    56
    difficulty:
    1.08
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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