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Christopher MaloneNov 2, 2022

In a submission read on air, Malone predicted that Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon and Doug Mastriano all win their governor's races.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original

0 of 3calls landed3 misses · all settled
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Christopher Malone said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Lake Dixon and Mastriano all win their races
Christopher Malone, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Steve Deace Show
The episode
RED WEDDING: These Two Factors Could Make Dems an Endangered Species | 11/2/22
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidNov 2, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Mastriano to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election“Christopher Malone says, Lake Dixon and Mastriano all win their races”
  2. 2Dixon to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election“Christopher Malone says, Lake Dixon and Mastriano all win their races”
  3. 3Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election“Christopher Malone says, Lake Dixon and Mastriano all win their races”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Mastriano to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election1Race WinnersJosh Shapiro won0100−101
Dixon to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election2Race WinnersGretchen Whitmer won0100−101
Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election3Race WinnersKatie Hobbs won000
3 calls · 3 misses · all settled066.7

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Race Winners

    Mastriano to win the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

    What happenedJosh Shapiro woncalled Doug Mastriano
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-pa
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −101
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Josh Shapiro
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Doug Mastriano
    days before the vote when called:
    5
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Race Winners

    Dixon to win the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial election

    What happenedGretchen Whitmer woncalled Tudor Dixon
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-mi
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −101
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Gretchen Whitmer
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Michigan gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Tudor Dixon
    days before the vote when called:
    5
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Race Winners

    Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

    What happenedKatie Hobbs woncalled Kari Lake
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.01difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-az
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Katie Hobbs
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Kari Lake
    days before the vote when called:
    5
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    0naive 66.7

The races in this take

every call on each
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More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.