Steve Deace· Oct 29, 2024
Deace laid out his final 2024 electoral map, giving Trump 297 electoral votes to Harris's 241, with Trump sweeping the Sun Belt (including North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona), winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but losing Michigan. He also forecast Republicans winning the Senate with 54 seats, including wins for McCormick in Pennsylvania and Moreno over Sherrod Brown in Ohio, plus an upset in Wisconsin's Senate race.
“At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
10 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 race margins, 1 chamber control and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 10 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 23.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlOct 29, 2024
“That Republicans, I think, end up with a minimum of 52. ... So I have Republicans finishing, with 54 US senators”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race MarginsOct 29, 2024
“At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28.28 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 28.28
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 312
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 100
- what they counted:
- electoral_votes
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 85
- baseline:
- 57
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- 297
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- half the electoral college
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 86
- their party:
- Republican
- the naive guess said:
- 269
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“Bernie Moreno has run a good enough campaign that I think he's gonna he's gonna beat Sherrod Brown”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Bernard F. Moreno
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Bernard F. Moreno
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race MarginsOct 29, 2024
“At the top, I have Trump with 297 electoral college votes, Kamala with 241.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28.28 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 28.28
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 226
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 100
- what they counted:
- electoral_votes
- whose number:
- Kamala Harris
- accuracy:
- 85
- baseline:
- 57
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- 241
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- they won:
- no
- the naive guess:
- half the electoral college
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 86
- their party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess said:
- 269
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“since the the Wisconsin Republican candidate doesn't have as much baggage as as Carrie Lake does, I'll choose that one. But I think Republicans are gonna flip one of those”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-senate-wi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Tammy Baldwin
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Eric Hovde
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Seat CountsOct 29, 2024
“So I have Republicans finishing, with 54 US senators”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 20+60.6 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 53
- skill:
- 60.6
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 53
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- what they counted:
- total_seats
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 20
- they said:
- 54
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- seats before:
- 49
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 49
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“I believe that Trump is gonna sweep the Sun Belt, and and I think for the first time since 1988, the, the the Rust Belt, the big three Rust Belt states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, will not all vote in mass.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“That's assuming you could... You're still gonna win Wisconsin then.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-wi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“you denied Trump the state of Michigan. ... So that is the state that I am I'm I'm giving them”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-mi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 29, 2024
“so I think I think McCormick is gonna win in Penn...”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Dave McCormick
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Dave McCormick
- days before the vote when called:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Henry OlsenRace WinnersHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.