Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 23, 2024

Eisen said the Falcons will end up the NFC's four seed but will lose Sunday night in Washington, reiterated their earlier call of the Rams as NFC West champs, agreed the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl, and said Michigan's Will Johnson will be a top-10 NFL draft pick.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · all settled

64Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

70A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 5Settlednone still waiting

#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think they're gonna lose in Washington.

Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 16: The Vikings Are The Best Team In The NFL
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidDec 23, 2024
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Atlanta Falcons to take the top seed“I'll push back and call that an overreaction because the Atlanta Falcons are gonna be the the four seed.”
2Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl“That's not an overreaction, Chris. I've been saying it since the Tuesday before Labor Day.”
3Los Angeles Rams to win the division“I had the Rams hosting the Vikings on a Saturday night, the Rams as the, the NFC West champs ... I saw that one coming before anybody put their marker on the Rams to win the West”
4Will Johnson to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)“And we didn't have Will Johnson who may be a top 10 pick. He's gonna be a top 10 pick in in the NFL.”
5Washington Commanders to beat Atlanta“So for Atlanta to make it, they're going to have to get a little bit of help, I think, because, I think they're gonna lose in Washington.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Atlanta Falcons to take the top seed¹	Seeding, Byes and Home Field	—	0	100	−117
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl²	Conference Champions	PHI and KC won	100	100	0
Los Angeles Rams to win the division³	Division Winners	—	100	0	+117
Will Johnson to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)⁴	Mock Draft Picks	Went 47	20.13	50	—
Washington Commanders to beat Atlanta⁵	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled			64	70

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 division winner, 1 game outcome pick, 1 mock draft pick and 1 seeding, byes and home field — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 64 out of 100, against 70 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Seeding, Byes and Home Field Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to take the top seed
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.17difficulty−117skill
How this was scored
skill:
−117
they picked:
ATL
season:
2024
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
checked as:
seeds 2–4 host a wild-card game — the bracket cannot separate them further
actual tier:
missed the playoffs
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
where they finished last season (missed the playoffs)
weeks in the season:
18
claimed seed:
4
claimed tier:
host
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
2Conference Champions Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked KC
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.17difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
they picked:
KC
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
champions:
PHI, KC
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's conference champions
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
reached the Super Bowl:
yes
lost the conference final:
no
Think this is wrong?
3Division Winners Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win the division
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.17difficulty+117skill
How this was scored
skill:
117
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
LAR
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
SF
difficulty:
1.17
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
4Mock Draft Picks Will Johnson
Will Johnson to be picked “top 10 pick” (picks 1–10)
What happenedWent 47
20.13Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Will Johnson
season:
2024
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
20.13
baseline:
50
actual pick:
47
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
20.13
predicted pick:
top 10 pick (picks 1–10)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
5Game Outcome Picks Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to beat Atlanta
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.17difficulty0skill
Closing line (Dec 29): Commanders by 3.5 · favorite pick, Commanders 63%.
How this was scored
won:
WAS
score:
24-30
skill:
0
they picked:
WAS
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
WAS
difficulty:
1.17
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
3
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
64naive 70