Mark Morales-SmithAug 4, 2026
Morales-Smith names four late-round quarterback sleepers — Kyler Murray, Malik Willis, Tyler Shough and Cam Ward — arguing each will outperform their draft cost. They also insist Murray, not J.J. McCarthy, will be the Vikings' starter, and that Shough can deliver low-end QB1 production.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Mark Morales-Smith said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromAs the QB17 off the boards, he's an absolute steal in fantasy drafts.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers: Malik Willis Brings Huge Upside, While A Year Two QB Is On The Rise
- The original
- Read the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 4, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- 1Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart“Murray has seen his ADP dip a bit because of this strange narrative going around that JJ McCarthy has a real shot to win this starting job. Spoiler alert: he doesn't.”
- 2Tyler Shough to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by passing yards“He could very well give you low-end QB1 production at a QB20 price this season.”
- 3Tyler Shough to outplay his draft cost (QB20)“He could very well give you low-end QB1 production at a QB20 price this season.”
- 4Kyler Murray to outplay his draft cost (QB17)“As the QB17 off the boards, he's an absolute steal in fantasy drafts.”
- 5Malik Willis to outplay his draft cost (QB21)“we are in on him at his current price. He's being drafted as the QB21... He has league-winning upside”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart1 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Shough to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by passing yards2 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| Tyler Shough to outplay his draft cost (QB20)3 | Sleeper Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Kyler Murray to outplay his draft cost (QB17)4 | Sleeper Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Malik Willis to outplay his draft cost (QB21)5 | Sleeper Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 5 waiting | — | — | ||||
How each call scored
5 checkable claims — 3 sleeper calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Kyler Murray · 2026 season28 calls from 21 pundits between 1 and 2. Mark Morales-Smith said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against the room
Their call against everyone else's, while this is still unsettled.
1Depth Chart CallsKyler MurrayMinnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
2Positional FinishesTyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough to finish QB1 (1–12) at his position, by passing yards
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Sleeper CallsTyler ShoughNew Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough to outplay his draft cost (QB20)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Sleeper CallsKyler MurrayMinnesota Vikings
Kyler Murray to outplay his draft cost (QB17)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Sleeper CallsMalik WillisMiami Dolphins
Malik Willis to outplay his draft cost (QB21)
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.Justin Penik · Trade and Signing Calls · Aaron Jones · Hit 100
Pennock predicted Sam Darnold to Pittsburgh, Zach Baun re-signing in Philadelphia, Charvarius Ward and Jamien Sherwood to Washington, Cam Robinson to Chicago as left tackle, Cam Bynum to the Jets, Darius Slayton to the Chargers, Aaron Jones back to Minnesota and Aaron Rodgers to the Giants.Rich Eisen · Trade and Signing Calls · Sam Darnold · Miss 0
Eisen expects Sam Darnold to remain in Minnesota rather than leave in free agency, and believes the Browns will trade Myles Garrett out of the conference, to an NFC team.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · Travis Hunter · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Sleeper Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · RJ Harvey · Hit 100
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.