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Jeff CavanaughMar 1, 2026

Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.

Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · 1 waiting
50.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 3Settled1 still waiting
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Jeff Cavanaugh said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think his draft range is around the Cowboys pick, somewhere around 20 to 35.
Jeff Cavanaugh, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Caleb Downs? Rueben Bain? A Post-NFL Combine Cowboys Mock Draft
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidFeb 28
  2. GradedAug 18–Sep 18
  1. 1Lorenzo Styles to be picked “not gonna go in the top 50” (picks 1–50)“Sonny Styles' brother is not gonna go in the top 50. It's not gonna happen.”
  2. 2A.J. Haulcy to be picked “a second round pick to get him, maybe even a third” (picks 33–100)“I like AJ Halsey, LSU safety. I need a second round pick to get him, maybe even a third if the league will let me.”
  3. 3Dillon Thieneman to be picked “somewhere around 20 to 35”“I'm not gonna say negative things about Dylan DeEineman, but I think his draft range is around the Cowboys pick, somewhere around 20 to 35.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Lorenzo Styles to be picked “not gonna go in the top 50” (picks 1–50)1Mock Draft PicksWent 1720.5150—
A.J. Haulcy to be picked “a second round pick to get him, maybe even a third” (picks 33–100)2Mock Draft PicksWent 7810050—
Dillon Thieneman to be picked “somewhere around 20 to 35”3Mock Draft Picks————
3 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · 1 waiting50.350

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 50.3 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
not gonna go in the top 50 (picks 1–50)They said
172What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksLorenzo Styles

    Lorenzo Styles to be picked “not gonna go in the top 50” (picks 1–50)

    What happenedWent 172
    0.51Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Lorenzo Styles
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    0.51
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    172
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0.51
    predicted pick:
    not gonna go in the top 50 (picks 1–50)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Mock Draft PicksA.J. Haulcy

    A.J. Haulcy to be picked “a second round pick to get him, maybe even a third” (picks 33–100)

    What happenedWent 78
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    A.J. Haulcy
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    78
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    a second round pick to get him, maybe even a third (picks 33–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Mock Draft PicksDillon Thieneman

    Dillon Thieneman to be picked “somewhere around 20 to 35”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50.3naive 50

Others on the same people

More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.