Nathan Jahnke#72 of 87 NFL pundits · Jul 31, 2026
A PFF fantasy piece names Ashton Jeanty, Kenneth Walker III and Omarion Hampton as high-upside running backs outside the elite tier who could finish as fantasy's overall RB1 in 2026, while flagging Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson as the favorites for that finish. It also tempers Jeanty's outlook due to expected goal-line competition and gives Walker top-five upside in Kansas City.
Published in writing · Pro Football FocusRead the original
What Nathan Jahnke said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromJahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson enter 2026 as the favorites to finish as fantasy football's overall RB1.
- Where it was published
- Pro Football Focus
- The piece
- Fantasy Football: Running backs who could finish No. 1 overall in 2026
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidJul 31
- GradedAug 5
- 1Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“all indications point to the team having selected quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick”
- 2Ashton Jeanty to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points“While Jeanty still has an opportunity to be among the league leaders in touches, a lack of goal-line work will hurt his chances of finishing among the top-5 fantasy running backs this season.”
- 3Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points“Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson enter 2026 as the favorites to finish as fantasy football's overall RB1.”
- 4Kenneth Walker III to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points“If his usage expands in the passing game or Andy Reid leans more heavily on the run than in recent seasons, Walker has the upside to finish as a top-five fantasy running back.”
- 5Jahmyr Gibbs to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points“Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson enter 2026 as the favorites to finish as fantasy football's overall RB1.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 11 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Ashton Jeanty to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points2 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points3 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| Kenneth Walker III to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points4 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points5 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 1 hit · 4 waiting | 100 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 4 positional finishes and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 4 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Kenneth Walker III · 2026 season · positional finish9 calls from 9 pundits between 1 positional finish and 24 positional finish. Nathan Jahnke said 5 positional finish. the room's median is 5 positional finish. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksFernando MendozaLas Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2026
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Positional FinishesAshton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders
Ashton Jeanty to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Positional FinishesBijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Positional FinishesKenneth Walker IIIKansas City Chiefs
Kenneth Walker III to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Positional FinishesJahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Josh Allen · Miss 17
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.Rich Eisen · Positional Finishes · George Pickens · Hit 100
Eisen called the Rams-winning-it-all take an overreaction but expects Los Angeles to win the NFC West, said they don't see how Myles Garrett fails to win Defensive Player of the Year, and called George Pickens perhaps the third-best receiver in the NFL this season.Chad Ochocinco Johnson · Positional Finishes · Christian Gonzalez · Miss 0
Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. They also remind listeners they called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.