Field Yates· Feb 16, 2026
As read on the show, Yates' ESPN mock draft has Fernando Mendoza first to the Raiders, Arvel Reese second to the Jets and runs through the Chiefs taking Jeremiah Love at nine.
“So number one, the Raiders, he's got Fernando Mendoza, the quarterback from Indiana.”
said on air, transcribed by us · KC Sports Network (podcast) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 9 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 9 have settled, averaging 87 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
overall pick3They said
10What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Mock Draft PicksFrancis MauigoaArizona CardinalsFeb 16, 2026
Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 3
“Francis Muygela at three to the Cardinals”
Close · 74Scored 73.84 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Francis Mauigoa
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 73.84
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 73.84
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“So number one, the Raiders, he's got Fernando Mendoza, the quarterback from Indiana”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsFeb 16, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“Arvel Reese, who's an edge rusher from Ohio State ... the Jets edge, Arval Reese, Fields got him going there too.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
- Mock Draft PicksDavid BaileyTennessee TitansFeb 16, 2026
David Bailey to be picked at number 4
“Titans with Borgonzi as a GM taking David Bailey, the edge”
Hit · 92Scored 91.7 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- David Bailey
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
- Mock Draft PicksCaleb DownsNew York GiantsFeb 16, 2026
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“Number five, Giants, Caleb Downs, a safety”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Caleb Downs
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
- Mock Draft PicksSpencer FanoCleveland BrownsFeb 16, 2026
Spencer Fano to be picked at number 6
“Spencer Fano tackled out of Utah for the Browns at six”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 7
“Carnell Tate to the Commanders at seven”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew Orleans SaintsFeb 16, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8
“and then Jordan Tyson at eight to pair with the LaVey, in New Orleans”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 8
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
- Mock Draft PicksJeremiyah LoveKansas City ChiefsFeb 16, 2026
Jeremiyah Love to be picked at number 9
“they have the Chiefs taking Jeremiah Love”
Close · 77Scored 77.11 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 56.67 against a shuffle’s 50+6.67 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 6.67
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 77.11
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 77.11
- predicted pick:
- 9
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 56.67
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.
- Scott BogmanMock Draft Picks · Olaivavega IoaneClose · 71He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks.