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2026 Florida gubernatorial election

Governors · November 3, 2026 · not yet held

The ballot

Beside the pundits

Two outside readings of the same race, never graded: what the market prices and what the polls average. The pundits' calls are read against them, not scored by them.

The market · Polymarket · October 3, 2026

  • Byron Donalds78¢
  • David Jolly23¢

A price in cents is the market's probability. Prices move; this is the day's close as we read it.

The polls · VoteHub · 3 polls in 21 days · through September 27, 2026

  • Byron Donalds46.8%
  • David Jolly43.5%

Byron Donalds by 3.3 on average. The latest poll from each pollster in the window, averaged line by line; sponsors and partisan polls are listed below so a reader can weigh them.

The 12 most recent polls
PollsterDatesSampleResult
Change Research · for Freedom Project USA2026-09-25 – 2026-09-271063 LVDavid Jolly 48% · Byron Donalds 46%
Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research2026-09-14 – 2026-09-21830 LVByron Donalds 51% · David Jolly 39%
St. Pete Polls · for Florida Politics2026-09-15 – 2026-09-17913 LVByron Donalds 43.5% · David Jolly 43.4%
Change Research · for Freedom Project USA2026-09-07 – 2026-09-091107 LVDavid Jolly 47% · Byron Donalds 44%
Targoz Market Research · for The James Madison Institute2026-07-20 – 2026-07-261027 LVJay Collins 44% · David Jolly 39%
Targoz Market Research · for The James Madison Institute2026-07-20 – 2026-07-261026 RVByron Donalds 45% · David Jolly 38%
University of North Florida2026-07-08 – 2026-07-17848 LVByron Donalds 46% · David Jolly 41%
Change Research · for Freedom Project USA2026-05-13 – 2026-05-161593 LVDavid Jolly 46% · Byron Donalds 42%
Cherry Communications (REP) · for Florida Chamber of Commerce2026-05-01 – 2026-05-09604 LVByron Donalds 47% · David Jolly 39%
The Public Sentiment Institute2026-04-27 – 2026-04-27687 LVDavid Jolly 40% · Byron Donalds 40%
The Public Sentiment Institute2026-04-27 – 2026-04-27687 LVJames Fishback 43% · David Jolly 38%
Stetson University2026-03-25 – 2026-04-13848 LVByron Donalds 46% · Jerry Demings 42%

The field, week by week

Each pundit's latest pick as of each week's end, so a bar is the room as it stood that week — not how many calls were made.

Sep 27Oct 4
Byron Donalds 1· 1 pundits on record this week

What the field called

Who the pundits on record picked to win, most picked first.

Every claim about this race (2)

Newest first. A grade appears once the result is certified and the claim is scored.