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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3701–3725 of 4,387
Travis Hunter to be picked “won't get past Cleveland (No. 2)”
which is why I don't believe. I never believed that he was going to get pat get to the Patriots, and now I don't believe that he's going to get past Cleveland because I think teams see this and they're just gonna want to take him.
Trey Amos to be picked “earlier than his 40th consensus ranking”
this is a guy who fortieth on the consensus board... I would probably take that he's going to get drafted before most people think.
Shavon Revel Jr. to be picked “a second round pick at the very lowest” (picks 33–64)
But he probably is going to be a second round pick at the very lowest
Walter Nolen to be picked “earlier than his 26th consensus slot; could go top ten” (picks 1–10)
whatever the over under on where Walter Nolan draft, you know stock is, I am taking him getting drafted earlier... consensus board I just checked he's at twenty six... he is an kind of an under the radar guy who could go top ten.
Donovan Jeter to be picked “the second round” (picks 33–64)
I think he's going to get ding to go in the second round, maybe because he just doesn't quite have the measurables teams are looking for.
Kaleb Johnson to be picked at number 61
61 Washington Commanders RB Kaleb Johnson Iowa
Tonka Hemingway to be picked at number 204
204 Dallas Cowboys IDL Tonka Hemingway South Carolina
Upton Stout to be picked at number 146
146 Carolina Panthers CB Upton Stout Western Kentucky
Kevin Winston Jr. to be picked at number 62
62 Buffalo Bills SAF Kevin Winston Jr. Penn State
Jalen Royals to be picked at number 93
93 New Orleans Saints WR Jalen Royals Utah State
Nash Jones to be picked at number 199
199 Los Angeles Chargers IOL Nash Jones Texas State
Tommi Hill to be picked at number 125
125 Los Angeles Chargers CB Tommi Hill Nebraska
Pat Bryant to be picked at number 181
181 Los Angeles Chargers WR Pat Bryant Illinois
Matthew Golden to be picked at number 18
18. Seattle Seahawks Selection: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Darien Porter to be picked at number 43
43 San Francisco 49ers CB Darien Porter Iowa State
Jaylin Smith to be picked at number 152
152 Arizona Cardinals CB Jaylin Smith USC
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
1. Tennessee Titans Selection: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
Tate Ratledge to be picked at number 70
70 Jacksonville Jaguars IOL Tate Ratledge Georgia
Charles Grant to be picked at number 98
98 Miami Dolphins IOL Charles Grant William & Mary
R.J. Mickens to be picked at number 172
172 Seattle Seahawks SAF RJ Mickens Clemson
Colston Loveland to be picked at number 22
22. Los Angeles Chargers Selection: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Nick Martin to be picked at number 169
169 Buffalo Bills LB Nick Martin Oklahoma State
Jared Ivey to be picked at number 84
84 Tampa Bay Buccaneers EDGE Jared Ivey Ole Miss
Clay Webb to be picked at number 208
208 Denver Broncos IOL Clay Webb Jacksonville State
Jarquez Hunter to be picked at number 158
158 Los Angeles Chargers RB Jarquez Hunter Auburn
