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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3726–3750 of 4,387
Jay Toia to be picked at number 159
159 Green Bay Packers IDL Jay Toia UCLA
Theo Wease Jr. to be picked at number 206
206 Buffalo Bills WR Theo Wease Missouri
Myles Hinton to be picked at number 245
245 Washington Commanders OT Myles Hinton Michigan
Jalen Rivers to be picked at number 150
150 Miami Dolphins IOL Jalen Rivers Miami FL
Elijah Roberts to be picked at number 156
156 Pittsburgh Steelers IDL Elijah Roberts SMU
Jahdae Barron to be picked at number 16
16. Arizona Cardinals Selection: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Wyatt Milum to be picked at number 113
113 San Francisco 49ers IOL Wyatt Milum West Virginia
Benjamin Morrison to be picked at number 45
45 Indianapolis Colts CB Benjamin Morrison Notre Dame
Alijah Huzzie to be picked at number 195
195 Los Angeles Rams CB Alijah Huzzie North Carolina
Brashard Smith to be picked at number 183
183 Baltimore Ravens RB Brashard Smith SMU
Shamari Simmons to be picked at number 257
257 Kansas City Chiefs SAF Shamari Simmons Arizona State
Mykel Williams to be picked at number 10
10. Chicago Bears Selection: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Jack Sawyer to be picked at number 128
128 Washington Commanders EDGE Jack Sawyer Ohio State
Quinn Ewers to be picked at number 145
145 New York Jets QB Quinn Ewers Texas
Hunter Wohler to be picked at number 239
239 Dallas Cowboys SAF Hunter Wohler Wisconsin
Sam Brown to be picked at number 222
222 Las Vegas Raiders WR Sam Brown MIami FL
Antwaun Powell-Ryland to be picked at number 189
189 Indianapolis Colts EDGE Antwaun Powell-Ryland Virginia Tech
Mello Dotson to be picked at number 178
178 Tennessee Titans CB Mello Dotson Kansas
Quinshon Judkins to be picked at number 87
87 Green Bay Packers RB Quinshon Judkins Ohio State
Jordan Hancock to be picked at number 168
168 Philadelphia Eagles CB Jordan Hancock Ohio State
Carson Bruener to be picked at number 221
221 Jacksonville Jaguars LB Carson Bruener Washington
Bhayshul Tuten to be picked at number 67
67 Cleveland Browns RB Bhayshul Tuten Virginia Tech
Marques Sigle to be picked at number 151
151 Indianapolis Colts SAF Marques Sigle Kansas State
Tai Felton to be picked at number 101
101 Los Angeles Rams WR Tai Felton Maryland
Jaxson Dart to be picked at number 21
21. Pittsburgh Steelers Selection: Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss