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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3926–3950 of 4,387
Carson Vinson to be picked at number 115
115 Arizona Cardinals OT Carson Vinson Alabama A&M
Miles Frazier to be picked at number 109
109 Buffalo Bills IOL Miles Frazier LSU
Josh Simmons to be picked at number 33
33 Cleveland Browns OT Josh Simmons Ohio State
Barrett Carter to be picked at number 117
117 Indianapolis Colts LB Barrett Carter Clemson
Cameron Williams to be picked at number 105
105 New York Giants OT Cameron Williams Texas
David Walker to be picked at number 126
126 Jacksonville Jaguars EDGE David Walker Arkansas State
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins to be picked at number 231
231 Miami Dolphins EDGE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins Georgia
Nick Emmanwori to be picked at number 24
24. Minnesota Vikings Selection: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Jalen McLeod to be picked at number 250
250 Green Bay Packers EDGE Jalen McLeod Auburn
Kyle Williams to be picked at number 73
73 New York Jets WR Kyle Williams Washington State
LaJohntay Wester to be picked at number 255
255 Cleveland Browns WR LaJohntay Wester Colorado
Thomas Fidone II to be picked at number 160
160 San Francisco 49ers TE Thomas Fidone II Nebraska
JJ Pegues to be picked at number 154
154 New York Giants IDL JJ Pegues Ole Miss
Tyler Warren to be picked at number 14
14. Indianapolis Colts Selection: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Dorian Strong to be picked at number 107
107 Jacksonville Jaguars CB Dorian Strong Virginia Tech
Donovan Jackson to be picked at number 47
47 Arizona Cardinals IOL Donovan Jackson Ohio State
Kyle McCord to be picked at number 94
94 Cleveland Browns QB Kyle McCord Syracuse
Barryn Sorrell to be picked at number 162
162 New York Jets EDGE Barryn Sorrell Texas
Jamaree Caldwell to be picked at number 82
82 Seattle Seahawks IDL Jamaree Caldwell Oregon
Luke Lachey to be picked at number 251
251 Kansas City Chiefs TE Luke Lachey Iowa
Jacob Parrish to be picked at number 56
56 Buffalo Bills CB Jacob Parrish Kansas State
Jalin Conyers to be picked at number 140
140 Carolina Panthers TE Jalin Conyers Texas Tech
Lathan Ransom to be picked at number 103
103 Tennessee Titans SAF Lathan Ransom Ohio State
Tre Harris to be picked at number 68
68 Las Vegas Raiders WR Tre Harris Ole Miss
Quincy Riley to be picked at number 136
136 Baltimore Ravens CB Quincy Riley Louisville
