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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3901–3925 of 4,387
Azareye'h Thomas to be picked at number 53
53 Tampa Bay Buccaneers CB Azareye'h Thomas Florida State
Jalen Milroe to be picked at number 34
34 New York Giants QB Jalen Milroe Alabama
Terrance Ferguson to be picked at number 96
96 Philadelphia Eagles TE Terrance Ferguson Oregon
Jihaad Campbell to be picked at number 19
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Selection: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Seth McLaughlin to be picked at number 194
194 Jacksonville Jaguars IOL Seth McLaughlin Ohio State
Drew Kendall to be picked at number 233
233 Chicago Bears IOL Drew Kendall Boston College
Jaylahn Tuimolaou to be picked at number 52
52 Seattle Seahawks EDGE JT Tuimoloau Ohio State
Deone Walker to be picked at number 85
85 Denver Broncos IDL Deone Walker Kentucky
Cam Skattebo to be picked at number 114
114 Carolina Panthers RB Cam Skattebo Arizona State
Billy Bowman Jr. to be picked at number 102
102 Detroit Lions SAF Billy Bowman Jr. Oklahoma
Ollie Gordon II to be picked at number 210
210 Baltimore Ravens RB Ollie Gordon II Oklahoma State
Chris Paul to be picked at number 129
129 Baltimore Ravens LB Chris Paul Jr. Ole Miss
James Pearce Jr. to be picked at number 49
49 Cincinnati Bengals EDGE James Pearce Jr. Tennessee
Princely Umanmielen to be picked at number 66
66 Kansas City Chiefs EDGE Princely Umanmielen Ole Miss
Joshua Farmer to be picked at number 72
72 Chicago Bears IDL Joshua Farmer Florida State
O'Donnell Fortune to be picked at number 198
198 Green Bay Packers CB O'Donnell Fortune South Carolina
Ty Robinson to be picked at number 95
95 Kansas City Chiefs IDL Ty Robinson Nebraska
Shavon Revel Jr. to be picked at number 54
54 Green Bay Packers CB Shavon Revel Jr. East Carolina
Hollin Pierce to be picked at number 171
171 Dallas Cowboys OT Hollin Pierce Rutgers
Kyle Monangai to be picked at number 220
220 New England Patriots RB Kyle Monangai Rutgers
Jack Bech to be picked at number 60
60 Detroit Lions WR Jack Bech TCU
Kyle Kennard to be picked at number 104
104 Cleveland Browns EDGE Kyle Kennard South Carolina
Jonah Monheim to be picked at number 217
217 New England Patriots IOL Jonah Monheim USC
Caleb Rogers to be picked at number 134
134 Philadelphia Eagles IOL Caleb Rogers Texas Tech
Denzel Burke to be picked at number 99
99 New York Giants CB Denzel Burke Ohio State