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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
4001–4025 of 4,387
Emeka Egbuka to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
Ibuka from Ohio State going to the Wow. What a wide receiver room that cup becomes. With Brian Thomas junior
Will Campbell to be picked at number 4
the Patriots at four ... they would go with the best offensive lineman, and he thinks Will Campbell, Mel Kiper
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “drop out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
Bottom line, though, is Mayock said that Chador would drop out of the top 10
Matthew Golden to be picked at a slot they never named
Matthew Golden. How about a Golden Marvin Harrison Junior combo for Kyler Murray
Jalon Walker to be picked at a slot they never named
Jalen Walker, who Mayock has, as he says, at a better grade than Abdul Carter, would go to Carolina, which is what Mayock said yesterday.
Kenneth Grant to be picked at number 43
If the niners wind up with Kenneth Grant forty third overall out of Michigan, that is what we call a steal.
Jalen Milroe to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
And then Milrow going to the Giants would be would be a neat... That's a fun quarterback
Michael Williams to be picked at a slot they never named
Michael Williams of Georgia to Green Bay
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
Abdul Carter to the Giants... with Hunter and Carter going two three
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2
Travis Hunter go second overall to Cleveland.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 9
Shador Sanders, who he says drops all the way to nine for the Saints to get him.
Jalon Walker to be picked at a slot they never named
Jalen Walker... would go to Carolina
Mason Graham to be picked at a slot they never named
Cam Ward and Mason Graham to the Titans and Jaguars respectively
Donovan Ezeiruaku to be picked at a slot they never named
As a Rocco to the Lions out of Boston College, another guy for the front seven there.
Luther Burden III to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
You know, Luther Burden out of Missouri.
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 6
Ashton Genti at six... Those three picks seem locked to the Raiders.
Tyler Shough to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
Mel believes the Friday night of the draft... will start quarterback quarterback, and that the Browns and the Giants are gonna get their guys and Shuck and Millrow right there.
Kaleb Johnson to be picked at a slot they never named
that Iowa running back, Caleb Johnson is really good, and the Chiefs are like, we'll take them.
Will Johnson to be picked at number 11
Will Johnson would be taken by the Niners eleventh overall
Armand Membou to be picked at number 7
Mel thinks they're gonna go offensive line again, and Armand Mebu, seventh overall.
Jaxson Dart to be picked at a slot they never named
The Rams decide to go and get their future quarterback and get Jackson dark.
Nick Emmanwori to be picked at a slot they never named
the power forward, safety out of South Carolina. Nick Eamonn Warrie for the Bucks.
Josh Simmons to be picked at a slot they never named
the best tackle on the board will be going to the Kansas City Chiefs... it's Josh Simmons
Tyler Warren to be picked at a slot they never named
And then there's Tyler Warren going to the bears.
Mike Green to be picked at a slot they never named
Mike Green, the Marshall linebacker being added to the mix in the middle of the draft, that would be to the Falcons.
