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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
4026–4050 of 4,387
Tetairoa McMillan to be picked at a slot they never named
Ted McMillan going to the Broncos.
Malaki Starks to be picked at a slot they never named
Malachi Starks, safety... out of Georgia to the Ravens.
Jahdae Barron to be picked at a slot they never named
Johnny Baron, the corner out of Texas... So Jalen Ramsey and Johnny Baron would be holding down a couple corners.
Elijah Arroyo to be picked at a slot they never named
The Jets do go tight on here to Elijah Arroyo
Omarion Hampton to be picked at a slot they never named
Omarion Hampton out of North Carolina would be the running back that the Cowboys would take there.
Xavier Watts to be picked at a slot they never named
Xavier Watts, the Bills need to get their back end of the defense a little bit more short on.
Maxwell Hairston to be picked at a slot they never named
Maxwell Hairston, the corner out of Kentucky for the Bills
Derrick Harmon to be picked at a slot they never named
Derek Harmon, the defensive tackle out of Oregon... Ken Hayward as long in the tooth. Let's get Derek Harmon in there.
Jack Coco to be picked at a slot they never named
Jack Beck out of Kansas State going to Green Bay.
Kelvin Banks Jr. to be picked at a slot they never named
Calvin Banks junior, protecting Sam Darnold. He becomes a tackle that's kinda been left out of the discussions.
Colston Loveland to be picked at a slot they never named
Colston Loveland, my tight end down at Michigan... A lot of people are penciling him in for Indianapolis.
Shemar Stewart to be picked at a slot they never named
Shamar Stewart to rush the passer for the commanders
Josh Conerly Jr. to be picked at a slot they never named
Connerly junior to add to the offensive line in Houston
Jayden Higgins to be picked at a slot they never named
Jaden Higgins out of Iowa State to Seattle.
Jihaad Campbell to be picked at a slot they never named
Jahad Campbell. Let's get him to try and make sure the 40 points that Joe Burrow puts up will hold up.
Quinshon Judkins to be picked at a slot they never named
Quinshawn Judkins... He would be going to Denver.
Jaylahn Tuimolaou to be picked at a slot they never named
It's JT Tuemoluau from Ohio State. He had a terrific career there staying in state to the Bengals.
Ashton Jeanty to be picked at number 6
They are going to be able to draft an impact player at number six. Pete, I think maybe Ashton Genty.
Malaki Starks to be picked at number 13
Malachi Stark's safety from Georgia, who's kind of dropped a little bit, but I think this is the start of his range (Dolphins)
Walter Nolen to be picked at number 30
I'm gonna go Walter Nolan here because I do think they're looking defensive line in general and put him with the Bills
Mike Green to be picked at number 15
I am having Mike Green go to the Falcons
Jalon Walker to be picked at number 4
I like Jalen Walker fourth for the Patriots
Will Johnson to be picked at number 8
So I am gonna go Will Johnson at cornerback to the Panthers (number eight overall)
Tyler Warren to be picked at number 14
the Colts are going to take... Tyler Warren
Tyleik Williams to be picked at number 24
Because I like Williams from Ohio State. It's like a sneaky guy here... Let's let's do that. I'm changing (Vikings at 24)
