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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
3976–4000 of 4,387
Colston Loveland to be picked at number 14
I'm looking at tight end. Michigan Colston go On won a national championship... The Colts add that piece
Matthew Golden to be picked at number 13
I'm gonna go with Matthew Golden, wide receiver from Texas... Golden goes to hard Rock.
Kelvin Banks Jr. to be picked at number 11
You were on the clock with the Niners... I'm going Texas. I'm going Kelvin Banks.
Omarion Hampton to be picked “first round fick” (picks 1–32)
We want to thank amar Are Hampton for joining US North Carolina running back projected to be a first round fick. Hopefully it works out well for him.
Tyler Shough to be picked “off the board in the top fifty to sixty picks”
There's a good chance all five of these quarterbacks talking about cam Wore, chaud or Sanders Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck, and Jaln Milroe. There's a good chance all five of those are off the board in the top fifty to sixty picks.
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2
I think there's a good chance we see cam Ward go one, Travis Hunter go two to the Browns, and then Abdul Carter three to the Giants.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “outside the top ten” (picks 1–10)
the Browns at two, the Giants at three, the Saints at nine. If I have to make a bet today, I say he gets through those three spots and he's outside the top ten.
Abdul Carter to be picked at number 3
Abdul Carter three to the Giants... I just don't think he gets out of the top three when it's all set out.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
I think there's a good chance we see cam Ward go one, Travis Hunter go two to the Browns, and then Abdul Carter three to the Giants.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
Cam Ward almost certainly will go one to Tennessee.
Jalen Milroe to be picked “round two”
If I'm a betting guy, I would say there's a better chance he goes round two, but sure you could see an avenue where he goes round one.
Jaxson Dart to be picked “off the board in the top fifty to sixty picks”
There's a good chance all five of these quarterbacks talking about cam Wore, chaud or Sanders Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck, and Jaln Milroe. There's a good chance all five of those are off the board in the top fifty to sixty picks.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “a late one, early two”
my evaluation of Shador has been pretty consistent since the season. I think he's a late one, early two.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
The Titans, again, nothing final, but we anticipate it's Cam Ward at number one overall because they just can't pass up that quarterback.
Jalen Milroe to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
I think this is a Milrose situation where he goes first round guys.
Joshua Gray to be picked “won't be a first round pick” (picks 1–32)
So won't be a first round pick, but is going to be a guy that I'm gonna pay a lot of attention to you because I think his upside is very much being slept on right now.
Armand Membou to be picked at number 7
I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends
Josh Simmons to be picked “probably in the first round” (picks 1–32)
Someone's going to take a chance on him at some point, probably in the first round, maybe even earlier than people think because of the position.
Donovan Jackson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)
Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one of those teams at the top of the second round that needs offensive lineman.
Mason Graham to be picked at a slot they never named
Cam Ward and Mason Graham to the Titans and Jaguars respectively
Jalon Walker to be picked at a slot they never named
Jalen Walker... would go to Carolina
Shedeur Sanders to be picked at number 9
Shador Sanders, who he says drops all the way to nine for the Saints to get him.
James Pearce Jr. to be picked at a slot they never named
the best front seven guy from the SEC will be going to the Eagles... James Pierce junior
Jalen Milroe to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
And then Milrow going to the Giants would be would be a neat... That's a fun quarterback
Travis Hunter to be picked at number 2
Travis Hunter go second overall to Cleveland.
