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Graded under the published methodology. Each call shows what it scored and how much better than a naive guess that was. How this kind is scored →
A first-round mock-draft pick missed where the player actually went by 10.2 picks on average, across 1,676 graded first-round picks; mocked in late day 3 (176+), the average miss grows to 49.6 picks.
Among the 11 pundits with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Chris Brockman has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +50.0, 76.0% accuracy across 36 graded picks.
Among the 15 publishers with ten or more graded mock-draft articles, Locked On Chiefs (podcast) has the best record: a MissedTakes Score of +49.2, 67.8% accuracy across 53 graded picks.
67% settled
out of 100
Takes in each band
2,919 / 4,387
graded
1,468 still pending
By season
Across the 2,100 graded exact-pick calls from every pundit and every draft, not only the 5 above: average miss on top-ten picks 2.7 slots across 738 calls; rest of round one 7.2 slots across 690.
4151–4175 of 4,387
Will Johnson to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
if we're talking corners, right, feel like Will Johnson and Jday Baron are are first round talents, right, gonna go in the first round.
Matthew Golden to be picked “somewhere between ten and twenty”
He was my twenty second player coming into this. He'll be in from somewhere between ten and twenty.
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins to be picked “fourth round” (picks 103–138)
he was not my top fifty, but he's to me, I had him like he's a fourth round guy.
Jahdae Barron to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
feel like Will Johnson and Jday Baron are are first round talents, right, gonna go in the first round.
Grey Zabel to be picked at number 10
So this is what Jack cooked up... For the Shaker, the Bears take Gray Zabel at ten.
Jahdae Barron to be picked “top fifteen” (picks 1–15)
it makes him a very attractive candidate to be maybe a top fifteen player
Quinn Ewers to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
I don't think he's going to be a first round pick... But if he gets to the second round
Kirk Cousins to be picked “mid to later round guy”
Coucord for me, reminded me of Kirk Cousins, a little bit of a mid to later round guy could potentially become a starter.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “not falling out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
So I don't think he's falling out of the top 10 at all. No way, man.
Jaxson Dart to be picked “taken the end of the first round” (picks 1–32)
So I think Jackson Dart is gonna get taken the end of the first round.
Shedeur Sanders to be picked “fall out of the top 10” (picks 1–10)
Shador Sanders. Yes. He's gonna fall out of the top 10.
James Pearce Jr. to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)
The guy I looked at was actually Pierce Junior from Tennessee... He's one of the guys that will slip into that first round right there.
Cam Skattebo to be picked at number 1
That's the number one player on my board and my mock I have him going to the Titans. Number one overall that's Cam Scataboo.
Cam Ward to be picked at number 1
There's a decent chance cam Wards still goes number one, whether it's to the Titans or a team trading up, and that he is not going to fall, you know, past the first couple of picks
Jayden Higgins to be picked “a very intriguing second round type of player” (picks 33–64)
That that sort of talent to me seems like a very intriguing second round type of. Player
Nick Emmanwori to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)
yeah he's the first, round pick he's the first safety out, the board
Malaki Starks to be picked “may have snuck into the first round” (picks 1–32)
he may have snuck into the first round
Maxwell Hairston to be picked “maybe in the first round and certainly in the first forty to fifty picks” (picks 1–32)
one that has a chance to get taken maybe in the first round and certainly in the first, you know forty to. Fifty, picks
Armand Membou to be picked “a chance he could go in the top ten” (picks 1–10)
there's. A chance there's a chance he could go in the top ten in, THIS draft
Bhayshul Tuten to be picked “goes earlier than expected”
With Tuton, we're on the street. He's gaining some serious attention. So keep his name on your radar as somebody who goes earlier than expected.
Quinshon Judkins to be picked “top fifty”
one of the two Ohio state running backs that we'll get taken top fifty, I would say
TreVeyon Henderson to be picked “top fifty”
one of the two Ohio state running backs that we'll get taken top fifty, I would say
Brady Cook to be picked “not going to get drafted”
Yeah, he's not gonna get drafted.
Jalen Milroe to be picked “second round type of selection” (picks 33–64)
but that does still feel like a second round type of selection in similarity to how the Eagles went about getting Jalen Hurts. I think that could still be the Milroe situation.
