Sean Spicer· Nov 3, 2024

Spicer forecasts Trump carrying Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada, with Republican Senate wins for Mike Rogers in Michigan and Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, and expects New Jersey to be close, within six or seven points.

“I do believe for the first time since two thousand and four, we carry Nevada.”

said on air or in an interview · Newt's World · read the original →

10 checkable claims — 9 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

9 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 77.8 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“I'm really bullish on Eric Covedy, not just winning, but I think he's going to be a great, great addition of the Senate.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
really bullish
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eric Hovde
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“I think Mike Rodgers... I think that he's going to pull this thing out.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Elissa Slotkin
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mike Rogers
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“The growth and registration in every single county in Arizona has been phenomenal... But Arizona, I feel bullish on”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
I feel bullish
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“I do believe for the first time since two thousand and four, we carry Nevada.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“I feel very bullish on Michigan... He adds out Michigan... This is not going to be huge, but I think he ekes it out”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“she's back on the ballot. That's good news for us. So anyway, I feel good.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“Georgia, I'm the most bullish... So for those reasons, I feel good about Georgia.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
the most bullish
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“I think Trump picks this thing up.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2024
“if you look at how Ron Johnson has performed and how he did in twenty sixteen, I feel very good about Wisconsin”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
I feel very good about Wisconsin
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
2
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 3, 2024
“I think New Jersey is going to be close six seven points.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

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