Mike Florio#15 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 21, 2025
Florio drafted CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, De'Von Achane, Trey McBride and TreVeyon Henderson, calling Achane their RB4, McBride their TE1 for the season, and Henderson an RB1 this year. They also said Jackson Dart eventually takes over as the Giants' starter.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Mike Florio said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI think Henderson's gonna be an RB one this year.
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- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft + Latest News
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- SaidAug 21, 2025
- GradedAug 7, 2026
- 1Fantasy Rankings“Florio's picks: CeeDee Lamb 4th, Malik Nabers 9th, A.J. Brown 14th, De'Von Achane 19th, Trey McBride 24th, TreVeyon Henderson 29th.”
- 2Trey McBride to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points“my tight end one in my rankings is Train McBride... if he has positive touchdown regression, he can he could one be the tight end one”
- 3Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart“At some point Jackson Dart's taken over there.”
- 4De'Von Achane to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points“I'll go with Devon Han who is my RB four.”
- 5Positional Finishes“And like if Mike Rabral agrees and Josh McDaniel agrees, I think Henderson's gonna be an RB one this year.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| “Florio's picks: CeeDee Lamb 4th, Malik Nabers 9th, A.J. Brown…”1 | Fantasy Rankings | — | 55 | 50 | +10 | |
| Trey McBride to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points2 | Positional Finishes | Finished #1 | 100 | 66.67 | +66.67 | |
| Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 91.67 | +16.67 | |
| De'Von Achane to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points4 | Positional Finishes | Finished #7 | 75 | 83.33 | −16.67 | |
| “And like if Mike Rabral agrees and Josh McDaniel agrees, I…”5 | Positional Finishes | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 2 hits · 2 close calls · 1 too vague to check | 82.5 | 72.9 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 claims — 3 positional finishes, 1 depth chart call and 1 fantasy ranking — the 4 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 calls we can check have settled, averaging 82.5 out of 100, against 72.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
“Florio's picks: CeeDee Lamb 4th, Malik Nabers 9th, A.J. Brown 14th, De'Von Achane 19th, Trey McBride 24th, TreVeyon Henderson 29th.”
VerdictClose55Close · naive 5055this call−50a naive guess=5better than naive×2difficulty=+10skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- a coin-flip ordering scores 50
- skill:
- 10
- placed:
- 5
- season:
- 2025
- players:
- 6
- accuracy:
- 55
- baseline:
- 50
- by position:
- WR 3: 25, RB 2: 100
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- could not place:
- 0
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Positional FinishesTrey McBrideArizona Cardinals
Trey McBride to finish top 1 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #1called #1 · by fantasy points100Hit · naive 66.67100this call−66.67a naive guess=33.33better than naive×2difficulty=+66.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 66.67
- player:
- Trey McBride
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 66.67
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 5
- actual finish:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 1
3Depth Chart CallsJaxson DartNew York Giants
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 91.67100this call−91.67a naive guess=8.33better than naive×2difficulty=+16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NYG
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Jaxson Dart
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Positional FinishesDe'Von AchaneMiami Dolphins
De'Von Achane to finish top 4 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #7called #4 · by fantasy points75Close · naive 83.3375this call−83.33a naive guess=−8.33worse than naive×2difficulty=−16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- De'Von Achane
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 83.33
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 9
- actual finish:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 4
5Positional FinishesTreVeyon HendersonNew England Patriots
“And like if Mike Rabral agrees and Josh McDaniel agrees, I think Henderson's gonna be an RB one this year.”
VerdictToo vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
82.5naive 72.9
Who this take is about
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