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Bryan DeArdo#4 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 26, 2026

They pick the Bengals to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in a low-scoring, defensive game, arguing Pittsburgh's struggling offense can't break through against Cincinnati's strong defense.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

50Close · out of 100
Steelers 30–27What happenedcalled Bengals by 3 · lost by 3
93.97A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
50This callout of 100
#4Bryan DeArdo’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Bryan DeArdo said

While those things could happen, I'm taking the Bengals in a close, defensive game.
Our reading: Cincinnati Bengals 20 — Steelers 17
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Bengals vs. Steelers: Will Aaron Rodgers find the end zone again against a surging Cincinnati defense?
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 26
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 50 out of 100, against 94 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals 20 — Steelers 17

    What happenedSteelers 30–27called Bengals by 3 · lost by 3
    50Close · naive 93.97
    50this call93.97a naive guess−43.97worse than naive1.89difficulty−83.11skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Bengals by 3.5, total 42.5 · this 20–17 calls a closer game (Bengals by 3) and fewer points (37).

    How this was scored
    score:
    27-30
    skill:
    −83.11
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    93.97
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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