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Cabot PhillipsOct 27, 2022

Phillips said Republicans were locked in for at least 48 Senate seats with five toss-ups left, and picked Oregon's governorship as a sleeper, arguing Republican Christine Drazan's share was enough to win a three-way race.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro ShowHear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
90A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Cabot Phillips said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
So Republicans are coming in right now, knowing they're gonna get at least 48.
Cabot Phillips, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Ben Shapiro Show
The episode
Daily Wire Backstage: The Red Wave
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 26, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Seat Counts“So Republicans are coming in right now, knowing they're gonna get at least 48. That's assuming you throw in North Carolina and Ohio”
  2. 2Christine Drazen (Republican) to win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election“Two things right now seem to show that Republicans are gonna win... And then you've got the republican, Christine Draisen. She's in the low forties, high thirties, but that's enough to win this race because there are three serious candidates. Oregon could have a Republican governor.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“So Republicans are coming in right now, knowing they're gonna…”1Seat Counts4910080+20.4
Christine Drazen (Republican) to win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election2Race WinnersTina Kotek won0100−102
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled5090

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seat Counts

    “So Republicans are coming in right now, knowing they're gonna get at least 48. That's assuming you throw in North Carolina and Ohio”

    What happened49called at least 48
    100Hit · naive 80
    100this call80a naive guess20better than naive1.02difficulty+20.4skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    49
    skill:
    20.4
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    49
    in their words:
    at least 48
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    80
    days before the vote when called:
    12
    difficulty:
    1.02
    seats before:
    50
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    their range:
    48 to 100
    the naive guess said:
    50
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Race Winners

    Christine Drazen (Republican) to win the 2022 Oregon gubernatorial election

    What happenedTina Kotek woncalled Christine Drazan
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.02difficulty−102skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-or
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −102
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Tina Kotek
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Christine Drazan
    days before the vote when called:
    12
    difficulty:
    1.02
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 90

The race in this take

every call on each
Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.