Lance Zierlein#11 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 20, 2026

Zierlein laid out a full mock of the top eight picks of the upcoming draft, and predicted the Texans will likely trade back out of the first round rather than pick at 28. They also expect the Giants to use pick 5 on a receiver and later trade up for Caleb Downs, and thinks Myles Garrett could be traded by the deadline.

Said on air, transcribed by us · John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)Hear the original

5 of 7calls landed5 hits · 2 close calls · 3 waiting

90.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 7 calls

50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

7 of 10Settled3 still waiting

#11Lance Zierlein’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Lance Zierlein said

There's at least a fifty fifty chance that when I come on the radio Friday morning, the Texans will have not have made a pick on day one.

Lance Zierlein, the lead quote

Where it was said: John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast)
The episode: 04/20 Hour 2: NFL draft predictions + Astros pitching horrible amid multiple injuries
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidApr 20
GradedOct 1

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Waiting
Mock Draft Picks	5	2	1
Team Draft Slot Calls	0	0	1
Trade and Signing Calls	0	0	1
All	5	2	3

How each call scored

10 checkable claims — 8 mock draft picks, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 17 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

7 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 90.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick

7They said

15What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Mock Draft Picks5 hits · 2 close calls · 1 waitingShow ▸

Rueben Bain to be picked at number 7
“Commander seven? Seven would be probably Ruben Bane.”
Rueben Bain Washington Commanders
Went 15mocked at 7
70.71Close
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Rueben Bain
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
50
actual pick:
15
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
70.71
predicted pick:
7
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 8
“Eight Saints? Saints would be, Jordan Tyson.”
Jordyn Tyson New Orleans Saints
Went 8mocked at 8
100Hit
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Jordyn Tyson
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
8
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
8
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6
“Six browns would be, either Carnell Tate... Let's say Carnell Tate there.”
Carnell Tate Cleveland Browns
Went 4mocked at 6
91.7Hit
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Carnell Tate
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
4
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
6
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
David Bailey to be picked at number 2
“Two, who you got? David Bailey.”
David Bailey
Went 2mocked at 2
100Hit
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
David Bailey
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
2
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
2
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
Caleb Downs to be picked at number 5
“Five? Five. I'll go downs. Giants.”
Caleb Downs New York Giants
Went 11mocked at 5
77.11Close
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Caleb Downs
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
77.11
baseline:
50
actual pick:
11
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
77.11
predicted pick:
5
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“One, Raiders, Mendoza.”
Fernando Mendoza Las Vegas Raiders
Went 1mocked at 1
100Hit
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Fernando Mendoza
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
100
baseline:
50
actual pick:
1
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
100
predicted pick:
1
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3
“Okay. Three. I'm still gonna say Reese.”
Arvell Reese Arizona Cardinals
Went 5mocked at 3
91.7Hit
mock order 87.5 − 50 for a shuffle = 37.5 × 1 difficulty = +37.5 skill
How this was scored
draft:
2026
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
skill:
37.5
player:
Arvell Reese
season:
2026
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
91.7
baseline:
50
actual pick:
5
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
91.7
predicted pick:
3
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
87.5
Think this is wrong?
Jordan Love to be picked at number 4
“Four? Four would be, Love.”
Jordan Love Tennessee Titans
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Team Draft Slot Calls1 waitingShow ▸

Houston Texans to pick “will have not have made a pick on day one”
“There's at least a fifty fifty chance that when I come on the radio Friday morning, the Texans will have not have made a pick on day one, because I think Nick would like to have a little bit more ammunition in this draft.”
Houston Texans
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Trade and Signing Calls1 waitingShow ▸

Myles Garrett to move
“So I think Miles Garrett could be dealt by the trade deadline, to be honest with you.”
Myles Garrett
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?