Brendan DonahueApr 18, 2023
Donahue's most recent mock draft projected first-round selections for the 2023 NFL Draft, including Bryce Young No. 1 to Carolina, C.J. Stroud No. 2 to Houston, a Cardinals trade down to No. 11 and a Titans trade up to No. 3 for Anthony Richardson.
Published in writing · Sharp Football AnalysisRead the original
What Brendan Donahue said
Another mock draft expert, Brendan Donahue, predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
- Where it was published
- Sharp Football Analysis
- The piece
- Biggest 2023 Draft Needs & Predictions: All 32 NFL Teams
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidApr 18, 2023
- GradedAug 5–18, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mock Draft Picks | 12 | 1 | 3 | 15 | |
| Team Draft Slot Calls | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 13 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
How each call scored
33 checkable claims — 31 mock draft picks and 2 team draft slot calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 58 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
18 of 33 have settled so far, averaging 77.1 out of 100, against 49.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
Mock Draft Picks12 hits · 1 close call · 3 misses · 15 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Joey Porter Jr. to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
“has the Steelers predicted to draft Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 3295.76Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Joey Porter Jr.
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 32
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- first-round pick (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Nolan Smith to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
“also has the Falcons predicted to draft Nolan Smith (EDGE, Alabama) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 30100Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Nolan Smith
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 30
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first-round pick (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Darnell Wright to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
“has the Patriots predicted to draft Darnell Wright (OT, Tennessee) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 10100Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Darnell Wright
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first-round pick (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Zay Flowers to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
“has the Vikings predicted to draft Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 22100Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Zay Flowers
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first-round pick (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Adetomiwa Adebawore to be picked “first-round pick” (picks 1–31)
“has the Sants predicted to draft Adetomiwa Adebawore (DL, Northwestern) with their first-round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 1103.26Missmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Adetomiwa Adebawore
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 3.26
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 110
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 3.26
- predicted pick:
- first-round pick (picks 1–31)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Tyree Wilson to be picked at number 11
“has the Cardinals predicted to draft Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech) after trading down to the No. 11 pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 7mocked at 1184.09Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Tyree Wilson
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 84.09
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 7
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 84.09
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Kelee Ringo to be picked at number 30
“Kalee Ringo (DB, Georgia) with the No. 30 pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 105mocked at 303.88Missmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Kelee Ringo
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 3.88
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 105
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 3.88
- predicted pick:
- 30
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
C.J. Stroud to be picked at number 2
“Brendan Donahue, has the Texans predicted to draft C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State) with the second pick”
Went 2mocked at 2100Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- C.J. Stroud
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Will Anderson Jr. to be picked at number 5
“has the Seahawks predicted to draft Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama) with the fifth pick”
Went 3mocked at 591.7Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Will Anderson Jr.
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 91.7
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 91.7
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Jordan Addison to be picked at number 20
“Jordan Addison (WR, Boston College) with the 20th pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 23mocked at 2087.81Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Jordan Addison
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 23
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 20
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Devon Witherspoon to be picked at number 6
“has the Lions predicted to draft Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois) with the sixth pick”
Went 5mocked at 695.76Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Devon Witherspoon
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Hendon Hooker to be picked at number 18
“Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee) with the 18th pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 68mocked at 1811.46Missmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Hendon Hooker
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 11.46
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 68
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 11.46
- predicted pick:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be picked at number 12
“Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State) with the 12th pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 20mocked at 1270.71Closemock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 20
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 70.71
- predicted pick:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Jalen Carter to be picked at number 10
“has the Eagles predicted to draft Jalen Carter (DL, Georgia) with the No. 10 pick”
Went 9mocked at 1095.76Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Jalen Carter
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Bryce Young to be picked at number 1
“Brendan Donahue, also has the Panthers predicted to draft Bryce Young (QB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
Went 1mocked at 1100Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Bryce Young
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Anthony Richardson to be picked at number 3
“Brendan Donahue, predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)”
Went 4mocked at 395.76Hitmock order 98.64 − 50 for a shuffle = 48.64 × 1 difficulty = +48.64 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 48.64
- player:
- Anthony Richardson
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 95.76
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 95.76
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 98.64
Anton Harrison to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Chiefs predicted to draft Anton Harrison (OT, Oklahoma) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Bryan Bresee to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Bills predicted to draft Bryan Bresee (DL, Clemson) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Christian Gonzalez to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Raiders selecting Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Quentin Johnston to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Giants predicted to draft Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Lukas Van Ness to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Packers predicted to draft Lukas Van Ness (EDGE, Iowa) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Dalton Kincaid to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Chargers predicted to draft Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Michael Mayer to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Jaguars predicted to draft Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Deonte Banks to be picked “1st round pick”
“also has the Ravens predicted to draft Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Brian Branch to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Bengals predicted to draft Brian Branch (DB, Alabama) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Paris Johnson Jr. to be picked “1st round pick”
“also has the Bears predicted to draft Paris Johnson Jr. with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Peter Skoronski to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Jets predicted to draft Peter Skoronski (OL, Northwestern) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Will Levis to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Colts predicted to draft Will Levis (QB, Kentucky) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Broderick Jones to be picked “1st round pick”
“also has the Commanders predicted to draft Broderick Jones (OT, Georgia) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Myles Murphy to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Buccaneers predicted to draft Myles Murphy (EDGE, Clemson) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Bijan Robinson to be picked “1st round pick”
“has the Cowboys predicted to draft Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas) with their 1st round pick according to his most recent mock draft.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Team Draft Slot Calls1 hit · 1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Arizona Cardinals to pick at number 11
“has the Cardinals predicted to draft Tyree Wilson (EDGE, Texas Tech) after trading down to the No. 11 pick”
Picked at 6called 1180.52Hit80.52 − 11.97 naive = 68.55 × 2 difficulty = +137.11 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- ARI
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- they picked 55 the year before
- skill:
- 137.11
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 11.97
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Tennessee Titans to pick at number 3
“predicts the Titans will trade up to No. 3 overall to select Anthony Richardson”
Picked at 11called 370.71Close70.71 − 73.84 naive = −3.13 × 2 difficulty = −6.26 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TEN
- draft:
- 2023
- naive:
- they picked 18 the year before
- skill:
- −6.26
- season:
- 2023
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 70.71
- baseline:
- 73.84
- actual pick:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Who this take is about
Joey Porter Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers, Nolan Smith, Atlanta Falcons, Darnell Wright, New England Patriots, Zay Flowers, Minnesota Vikings, Adetomiwa Adebawore, New Orleans Saints, Tyree Wilson, Arizona Cardinals, Kelee Ringo, Philadelphia Eagles, C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans, Will Anderson Jr., Seattle Seahawks, Jordan Addison, Devon Witherspoon, Detroit Lions, Hendon Hooker, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jalen Carter, Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans, Anthony Richardson, Anton Harrison, Kansas City Chiefs, Bryan Bresee, Buffalo Bills, Christian Gonzalez, Las Vegas Raiders, Quentin Johnston, New York Giants, Lukas Van Ness, Green Bay Packers, Dalton Kincaid, Los Angeles Chargers, Michael Mayer, Jacksonville Jaguars, Deonte Banks, Baltimore Ravens, Brian Branch, Cincinnati Bengals, Paris Johnson Jr., Chicago Bears, Peter Skoronski, New York Jets, Will Levis, Indianapolis Colts, Broderick Jones, Washington Commanders, Myles Murphy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bijan Robinson, Dallas Cowboys
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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.