Andy Furman· Feb 8, 2026
Furman agreed Fernando Mendoza goes No. 1 to the Raiders and the Jets take Arvell Reese at No. 2, but split from Brooks by preferring Spencer Fano over Francis Mauigoa, taking Carnell Tate at No. 4 to Tennessee, Jordyn Tyson at No. 5 to the Giants, and Rueben Bain to the Bengals at No. 10. He also expects Shedeur Sanders to be Cleveland's starting quarterback.
“I gotta believe Mendoz is going to be the number one pick.”
said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 5 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call and 1 prospect vs prospect call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 93.7 out of 100, against 56 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Prospect vs Prospect CallsSpencer FanoFeb 8, 2026
Spencer Fano to be drafted ahead of Francis Mauigoa
“I think the guy who head and shoulders over Francis over there Magua of Miami is the two time All American final from Utah, So I think that guy would get head and shoulders over your pick.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50+50 skillHow this was scored
- claim:
- Spencer Fano drafted ahead of Francis Mauigoa
- draft:
- 2026
- skill:
- 50
- what happened:
- Spencer Fano went 9, Francis Mauigoa went 10
- player:
- Spencer Fano
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- compared to:
- Francis Mauigoa
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksCarnell TateTennessee TitansFeb 8, 2026
Carnell Tate to be picked at number 4
“So I have Cornell Tate going from Ohio State at number four the Tennessee.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Carnell Tate
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 4
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
- Mock Draft PicksArvell ReeseNew York JetsFeb 8, 2026
Arvell Reese to be picked at number 2
“I think the Jets got that pick, and I think they need an edge rusher to get the kid Reefs out of Ohio state.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Arvell Reese
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 5
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
Shedeur Sanders to be 1st on the depth chart
“this guy probably will end up as a starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns next year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CLE
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Shedeur Sanders
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksJordyn TysonNew York GiantsFeb 8, 2026
Jordyn Tyson to be picked at number 5
“I'm gonna go with the receiver and the number five pick with the Giants. Take Jordan Tyson from Arizona State for the Giants.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Jordyn Tyson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 87.81
- predicted pick:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
“I gotta believe Mendoz is going to be the number one pick, which they need a quarterback.”
Hit · 100Scored 100 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
Rueben Bain to be picked at number 10
“But I think that Ruby band maybe the guy, the edge Rusher out of Miami.”
Hit · 81Scored 80.52 on this pickthis mock ordered the draft 95 against a shuffle’s 50+45 skillHow this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- skill:
- 45
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 80.52
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 80.52
- predicted pick:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- 95
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New York GiantsHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Ryan WilsonMock Draft Picks · J.J. McCarthyMiss · 37Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands.
- Lance ZierleinMock Draft Picks · Jeremiyah LoveHit · 100Zierlein laid out his final mock draft: Jeremiah Love at No. 3 to Arizona, Sonny Styles at No. 4 to Robert Saleh's team, and Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5. He also called Styles the only first-round linebacker in the class and said Ty Simpson is a lock to be a first-round pick, most likely to Arizona.
- Gregg RosenthalMock Draft Picks · K.C. ConcepcionClose · 68Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties.
- Nick ShookMock Draft Picks · Dillon ThienemanClose · 57Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
- Daniel JeremiahMock Draft Picks · Keyron CrawfordHit · 81In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville.
- Jeff CavanaughMock Draft Picks · Lorenzo StylesMiss · 1Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40.