Steve Deace· Nov 1, 2024
Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
“And I think the Republicans end up with 54 US senators.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 1 chamber control, 1 race margin and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 9 have settled, averaging 85 out of 100, against 8.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Chamber ControlNov 1, 2024
“On the senate side, I actually believe now 52 is the low number that Republicans will end up with.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“if I'm not mistaken, you also gave him Arizona and Nevada. Is that correct? Yes. I did.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-az
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I think McCormick will also win, and and therefore, that'll get Republicans.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Dave McCormick
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Dave McCormick
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I think Bernie Moreno's run a good campaign. And so between his campaign and Trump's coattails there, I think they will take that seat away from Sherrod Brown as well.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-oh
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Bernard F. Moreno
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Bernard F. Moreno
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race MarginsNov 1, 2024
“297 to 241, I do believe for the first time since 1988, the, the Rust Belt, Triumvirate will splinter and not all go the same way.”
Hit · 85Scored 85a naive guess scored 57+28 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 28
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 312
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 100
- what they counted:
- electoral_votes
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 85
- baseline:
- 57
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- 297
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- half the electoral college
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 86
- their party:
- Republican
- the naive guess said:
- 269
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I I think that Pennsylvania will go red.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-pa
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I tried to take a state that I do think that Trump is trending well in and have it go blue just based off of fortification that exists. And that state is my former home state of Michigan... I think Michigan will hold firm”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president-mi
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kamala Harris
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Seat CountsNov 1, 2024
“And I think the Republicans end up with 54 US senators.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 20+60 skillHow this was scored
- election year:
- 2024
- party:
- Republican
- seats after:
- 53
- skill:
- 60
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 53
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- what they counted:
- total_seats
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 20
- they said:
- 54
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- seats before:
- 49
- the naive guess:
- no change from the previous election
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the naive guess said:
- 49
- Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“you also gave him Arizona and Nevada. Is that correct? Yes. I did.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-nv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Sam WangRace WinnersMiss · 0Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
- Henry OlsenRace WinnersHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.