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Jason McIntyre#46 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 16, 2026

Filling in as host, McIntyre ranked the eight remaining divisional-round quarterbacks from 8 to 1, with Josh Allen first and Bo Nix last. They also said Matthew Stafford will probably win MVP, called the Rams their Super Bowl pick, said Fernando Mendoza is a slam-dunk No. 1 pick, thinks Arch Manning goes No. 1 next year, and called Kansas's Peterson a top-five pick.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 5calls landed2 hits · 3 misses · all settled
40Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
40A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5 of 5Settlednone still waiting
#46Jason McIntyre’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jason McIntyre said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Number one, Josh Allen, I don't think you can go anywhere else with this.
Jason McIntyre, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode
THE HERD - Hour 2 - Ranking the top QBs in the NFL playoffs, did Dante Moore make a mistake?
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJan 16
  2. GradedAug 7
  1. 1Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl“if I had, you know, money to put on a team to win the Super Bowl, I'd be the Rams because I love Stafford right now”
  2. 2Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“Fernando mendoz a slam, dunk number one. Pick”
  3. 3Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos“As a Jetson, I'm rooted for Josh Allen. Yeah, but I do think Denver PROBLEMANCELF”
  4. 4Arch Manning to be picked at number 1“i think Arch manning probably is the number one pick next. Year”
  5. 5Matthew Stafford to win MVP“I went with Matt Stafford and he's probably going to be the MVP.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl1Super Bowl PicksSEA won it000
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 12Mock Draft PicksWent 110050—
Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos3Game Outcome Picks—0100−100
Arch Manning to be picked at number 14Mock Draft PicksWent undrafted050—
Matthew Stafford to win MVP5Award PicksMatthew Stafford won1000+100
5 calls · 2 hits · 3 misses · all settled4040

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 award pick, 1 game outcome pick and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Super Bowl PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl

    What happenedSEA won itpicked LAR
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    champion:
    SEA
    runner up:
    NE
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Mock Draft PicksFernando Mendoza

    Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1

    What happenedWent 1mocked at 1
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Fernando Mendoza
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    1
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill

    Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    −100
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Mock Draft PicksArch Manning

    Arch Manning to be picked at number 1

    What happenedWent undraftedmocked at 1
    0Miss · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Arch Manning
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    undrafted
    outcome:
    went undrafted in 2026; has not appeared on an NFL roster
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    undrafted
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    0
    predicted pick:
    1
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Award PicksMatthew StaffordLos Angeles Rams

    Matthew Stafford to win MVP

    What happenedMatthew Stafford won
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill
    How this was scored
    award:
    mvp
    naive:
    the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
    skill:
    100
    player:
    Matthew Stafford
    season:
    2025
    who won:
    Matthew Stafford
    correct:
    yes
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    40naive 40

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