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Aaron McIntireNov 4, 2022

McIntyre called Lee Zeldin's win in New York as the biggest upset of the night, expected Republicans to finish with 54 to 57 Senate seats, and assumed Kari Lake would be governor of Arizona.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original

0 of 3calls landed3 misses · all settled
0Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
60A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet

What Aaron McIntire said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think Republicans will end up with a minimum of 54 seats, a maximum of 57 maybe.
Aaron McIntire, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Steve Deace Show
The episode
Red Wave, Red Tsunami, or Red Wedding? | Guest: Jason Johnson | 11/4/22
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidNov 4, 2022
  2. Election DayNov 8, 2022
  3. GradedOct 10, 2026
  1. 1Seat Counts“So I I think Republicans will end up with a minimum of 54 seats, a maximum of 57 maybe.”
  2. 2Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election“what I would like to see immediately and I think is going to happen is Carrie Lake down in Arizona declares an invasion on the border”
  3. 3Lee Zeldin to win the 2022 New York gubernatorial election“I'm calling my shots. We're gonna go Lee Zeldin in New York.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
“So I I think Republicans will end up with a minimum of 54…”1Seat Counts49080−80
Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election2Race WinnersKatie Hobbs won000
Lee Zeldin to win the 2022 New York gubernatorial election3Race WinnersKathy Hochul won0100−100
3 calls · 3 misses · all settled060

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Seat Counts

    “So I I think Republicans will end up with a minimum of 54 seats, a maximum of 57 maybe.”

    What happened49called a minimum of 54 seats, a maximum of 57 maybe
    0Miss · naive 80
    0this call80a naive guess−80worse than naive1difficulty−80skill
    How this was scored
    election year:
    2022
    party:
    Republican
    seats after:
    49
    skill:
    −80
    topic:
    elections
    what happened:
    49
    in their words:
    a minimum of 54 seats, a maximum of 57 maybe
    read as:
    as written
    result from:
    senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
    chamber:
    2022-senate
    what they counted:
    seats held
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    80
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    seats before:
    50
    the naive guess:
    no change from the previous election
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    their range:
    54 to 57
    the naive guess said:
    50
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Race Winners

    Kari Lake to win the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

    What happenedKatie Hobbs woncalled Kari Lake
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-az
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Republican
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Katie Hobbs
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Kari Lake
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Race Winners

    Lee Zeldin to win the 2022 New York gubernatorial election

    What happenedKathy Hochul woncalled Lee Zeldin
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2022-governor-ny
    election year:
    2022
    skill:
    −100
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2022-governor
    who won:
    Kathy Hochul
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2022 New York gubernatorial election
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Lee Zeldin
    days before the vote when called:
    3
    difficulty:
    1
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2022-11-08
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    0naive 60

The races in this take

every call on each
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More race winners

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