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Albert Breer#35 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 8, 2026

Breer said Ty Simpson won't be a first-round pick and will likely land in the second round, while Indiana receiver Omar Cooper is probably a first-rounder and teammate Elijah Surratt might go somewhere in the top 100. They also called Oregon's Dante Moore the closest thing to a lock among the 2027 first-round quarterback crop.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 close calls · 1 waiting
64.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 4Settled1 still waiting
#35Albert Breer’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Albert Breer said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
My guess would be Ty Simpson for those reasons probably goes somewhere in the second round.
Albert Breer, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
Hour 3: Rich’s Power Rankings, plus The MMQB’s Albert Breer Talks NFL Draft & More
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidApr 8
  2. GradedAug 14
  1. 1Elijah Sarratt to be picked “somewhere in the top 100” (picks 1–100)“Elijah Surratt, who's might be somewhere in the top 100”
  2. 2Ty Simpson to be picked “somewhere in the second round” (picks 33–64)“my guess would be Ty Simpson for those reasons probably goes somewhere in the second round because I don't think people look at him and say, yeah. That guy projects to be one of the top 10 quarterbacks in football.”
  3. 3Omar Cooper to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)“he's throwing to Omar Cooper, who's probably gonna be a first round pick”
  4. 4Matt Moore to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)“Dante Moore is obviously the most accomplished of these guys and probably is the closest thing to a lock... Who have a shot to go in the first round”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Elijah Sarratt to be picked “somewhere in the top 100” (picks 1–100)1Mock Draft PicksWent 11552.2150—
Ty Simpson to be picked “somewhere in the second round” (picks 33–64)2Mock Draft PicksWent 1342.0450—
Omar Cooper to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)3Mock Draft PicksWent 3010050—
Matt Moore to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)4Mock Draft Picks————
4 calls · 1 hit · 2 close calls · 1 waiting64.850

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 4 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

overall pick
somewhere in the top 100 (picks 1–100)They said
115What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Mock Draft PicksElijah Sarratt

    Elijah Sarratt to be picked “somewhere in the top 100” (picks 1–100)

    What happenedWent 115
    52.21Close · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Elijah Sarratt
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    52.21
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    115
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    52.21
    predicted pick:
    somewhere in the top 100 (picks 1–100)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Mock Draft PicksTy Simpson

    Ty Simpson to be picked “somewhere in the second round” (picks 33–64)

    What happenedWent 13
    42.04Close · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Ty Simpson
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    42.04
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    13
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    42.04
    predicted pick:
    somewhere in the second round (picks 33–64)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  3. 3Mock Draft PicksOmar Cooper

    Omar Cooper to be picked “first round pick” (picks 1–32)

    What happenedWent 30
    100Hit · naive 50
    How this was scored
    draft:
    2026
    naive:
    a shuffled mock scores 50
    player:
    Omar Cooper
    season:
    2026
    zero credit this far off:
    32
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    50
    actual pick:
    30
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    pick accuracy:
    100
    predicted pick:
    first round pick (picks 1–32)
    weeks left when called:
    0
    mock ordering score:
    only one pick — no order to score
    Think this is wrong?
  4. 4Mock Draft PicksMatt Moore

    Matt Moore to be picked “first round” (picks 1–32)

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

  5. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    64.8naive 50

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