Pete Prisco#51 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 2, 2026

Prisco picks the Colts to beat the Commanders 31-30 in London in a high-scoring game, and has the Cardinals upsetting the Giants 24-21 at MetLife Stadium.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · all settled

45.2Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls

42.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

2Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#51Pete Prisco’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Pete Prisco said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

Look for the Colts and Commanders to both score a lot, but it's the Colts who will win it late.

Pete Prisco, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: NFL Week 4 odds, predictions, expert picks: Who wins 49ers-Broncos showdown? Colts or Commanders in London?
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 2
PlayedOct 4
GradedOct 4–5

1Arizona Cardinals 24 — Giants 21“Pete Prisco has the visitors pulling off a 24-21 upset at MetLife Stadium.”
2Indianapolis Colts 31 — Commanders 30“Pete Prisco likes the Colts to win a 31-30 thriller in London”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Arizona Cardinals 24 — Giants 21¹	Score Predictions	Giants 36–24	28.57	73.81	−82.79
Indianapolis Colts 31 — Commanders 30²	Score Predictions	Colts 30–13	61.9	10.86	+93.42
2 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled			45.2	42.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 45.2 out of 100, against 42.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Score Predictions Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals 24 — Giants 21
What happenedGiants 36–24called Cardinals by 3 · lost by 12
28.57Miss · naive 73.81
28.57this call73.81a naive guess−45.24worse than naive1.83difficulty−82.79skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Cardinals by 2.5, total 44.5 · this 24–21 calls a bigger Cardinals win (by 3) and more points (45).
How this was scored
score:
24-36
skill:
−82.79
they picked:
ARI
season:
2026
accuracy:
28.57
baseline:
73.81
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
12
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts 31 — Commanders 30
What happenedColts 30–13called Colts by 1 · won by 17
61.9Close · naive 10.86
61.9this call10.86a naive guess51.04better than naive1.83difficulty+93.42skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Colts by 4.5, total 46.5 · this 31–30 calls a closer game (Colts by 1) and more points (61).
How this was scored
score:
30-13
skill:
93.42
they picked:
IND
season:
2026
accuracy:
61.9
baseline:
10.86
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
17
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
0.56
predicted margin:
1
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
45.2naive 42.3

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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More score predictions

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.
Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.
John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.
Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin predicted final scores for seven Week 10 games, taking the Giants over the Commanders, the Lions, Chiefs, Packers, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens to win their respective matchups.