Gregg Rosenthal· Jan 24, 2025
Rosenthal expects Liam Cohen to become the Jaguars' next head coach, and predicts the Jaguars won't necessarily win on the field in 2025. Against the spread he takes the Commanders plus six, and he picks the Bills to beat the Chiefs 31-28, having also picked Buffalo to win the Super Bowl.
“They're not going to be the worst the best team that hasn't made the super Bowl because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points.”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
4 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 4 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 87.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025
Buffalo Bills 31 — Chiefs 28
“Great game, Bill's Chiefs thirty one, twenty eight. Let's go with that.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 98.28-48.28 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 29-32
- skill:
- -48.28
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 98.28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.28
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs
“I think the Bills are going to win this game. I do legitimately believe it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 29-32
- skill:
- -100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Conference ChampionsBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
“because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 100-50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -50
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI,KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- Super Bowl PicksBuffalo BillsJan 24, 2025
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl
“I did have the Bills winning the Super Bowl this year, so I'm I am invested.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 50-50 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- -50
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Ralph VentreRoster Spot Calls · Christian BenfordMiss · 0Ventre expects Christian Benford's toe injury to sideline him for at least the Week 4 game against New England, and believes the Bills will have to add a cornerback to the 53-man roster this week — likely by moving Benford to injured reserve — with practice squad rookie Kani Walker the most likely player elevated.
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris BrockmanConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Brockman argues the Seahawks are at the start of a dynasty, predicting they will win multiple Super Bowls over the next five years, and that they are set up to return to the Super Bowl the following season in Los Angeles.
- Damonza ByrdConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says he believes New England will win in Denver even though he is taking the Broncos with the points.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · New England PatriotsHit · 100The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; he also picks New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. He calls Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.
- Nick WrightConference Champions · Denver BroncosClose · 50Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.
- AJ HawkConference Champions · Los Angeles RamsClose · 50Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC he stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.
- Derek MurphyConference Champions · Seattle SeahawksHit · 100Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.