Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 24, 2025
Rosenthal expects Liam Cohen to become the Jaguars' next head coach, and predicts the Jaguars won't necessarily win on the field in 2025. Against the spread they take the Commanders plus six, and they pick the Bills to beat the Chiefs 31-28, having also picked Buffalo to win the Super Bowl.
Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original
What Gregg Rosenthal said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThey're not going to be the worst the best team that hasn't made the super Bowl because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points.
- Where it was said
- Around the NFL (podcast)
- The episode
- NFL Conference Championship Picks and Liam Coen Jaguars Stunner
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 24, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Buffalo Bills 31 — Chiefs 28“Great game, Bill's Chiefs thirty one, twenty eight. Let's go with that.”
- 2Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs“I think the Bills are going to win this game. I do legitimately believe it.”
- 3Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl“because they are going to make the super Bowl and they win it by three points”
- 4Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl“I did have the Bills winning the Super Bowl this year, so I'm I am invested.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills 31 — Chiefs 281 | Score Predictions | — | 50 | 98.28 | −48.28 | |
| Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 100 | −100 | |
| Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl3 | Conference Champions | PHI and KC won | 50 | 100 | −50 | |
| Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl4 | Super Bowl Picks | PHI won it | 0 | 50 | −50 | |
| 4 calls · 2 close calls · 2 misses · all settled | 25 | 87.1 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 1 conference champion, 1 game outcome pick, 1 score prediction and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 4 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 87.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 31 — Chiefs 28
VerdictClose50Close · naive 98.2850this call−98.28a naive guess=−48.28worse than naive×1difficulty=−48.28skillClosing line (Jan 26): Chiefs by 1.5, total 49.5 · this 31–28 calls a Bills win (by 3; the line gave the Bills 48%) and more points (59).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- score:
- 29-32
- skill:
- −48.28
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 98.28
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- naive home margin:
- 2.28
- predicted margin:
- 3
2Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Chiefs
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1difficulty=−100skillClosing line (Jan 26): Chiefs by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Chiefs 52%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 29-32
- skill:
- −100
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Conference ChampionsBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to reach the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI and KC wonpicked BUF50Close · naive 10050this call−100a naive guess=−50worse than naive×1difficulty=−50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −50
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 100
- champions:
- PHI, KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
4Super Bowl PicksBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl
What happenedPHI won itpicked BUF0Miss · naive 500this call−50a naive guess=−50worse than naive×1difficulty=−50skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −50
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 50
- champion:
- PHI
- runner up:
- KC
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
25naive 87.1
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.John Breech · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 62
Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 74
Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17.
More conference champions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Damonza Byrd · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
The co-host picks the Seahawks to beat the Rams in the NFC Championship game, and says they believe New England will win in Denver even though they are taking the Broncos with the points.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · New England Patriots · Hit 100
The host picks the Rams to beat the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game and believes the winner of that game wins the Super Bowl, i.e. that this is the Rams' year; they also pick New England to win in Denver despite taking the Broncos with the points, and says Stafford is winning MVP. They call Sean McVay the second-best coach in the NFL.Nick Wright · Conference Champions · Denver Broncos · Close 50
Wright picked the Broncos to beat the Patriots in a low-scoring AFC Championship game (17-16), said Sean Payton would coach Denver to the Super Bowl, picked the Rams to win outright in Seattle 31-20, believes the winner of the NFC game wins the Super Bowl with the Rams the better team, and expects Matt Stafford to be named league MVP.AJ Hawk · Conference Champions · Los Angeles Rams · Close 50
Hawk picked the Patriots to win in Denver despite liking Stidham and the Broncos defense, and in the NFC they stuck with the Rams, saying Stafford gets to the Super Bowl.Derek Murphy · Conference Champions · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Bone said after watching film that Seattle will handle the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, and that the Seahawks are going to the Super Bowl.