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Aaron McIntireSep 27, 2024

McIntyre also picked Kamala Harris to win the presidential election, with a confidence level of about seven out of ten.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Donald Trump wonWhat happenedcalled Kamala Harris
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Aaron McIntire said

I'm at Kamala. I'm also at, like, a seven just like Todd.
Our reading: Kamala Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election
Where it was said
Steve Deace Show
The episode
SHRUG: Why Predicting the 2024 Election Is TOUGH | Guest: Rob Eno | 9/27/24
The original
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  1. SaidSep 27, 2024
  2. Election DayNov 5, 2024
  3. GradedOct 9, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Kamala Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election

    What happenedDonald Trump woncalled Kamala Harris
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.05difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2024-president
    election year:
    2024
    skill:
    0
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    fec-2024-president
    who won:
    Donald Trump
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    race name:
    2024 U.S. presidential election
    decided in the:
    electoral-college
    they said:
    Kamala Harris
    days before the vote when called:
    38
    difficulty:
    1.05
    the winner's party:
    Republican
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2024-11-05
    the result is:
    certified
    the party they named:
    Democratic
    Think this is wrong?

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