Cody KesslerMar 3, 2025

Kessler ranks the quarterback class with Cam Ward first, Shedeur Sanders second and Jackson Dart third, thinks Quinn Ewers is a second-round pick rather than a first, sees Dart possibly falling to Day 2, and offers pro comparisons for several passers.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 4calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · 1 waiting

48.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls

35.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4 of 5Settled1 still waiting

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Cody Kessler said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm solid with cam Ward being number one. Chador for me is still too, but I think that gap between two and Jackson Dart at three got a little bit closer this week.

Cody Kessler, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode: GMFB Monday Hour 2: Rodgers Future, Cam Ward/Shedeur Sanders, and Combine QB Assessments
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidMar 3, 2025
GradedAug 7, 2026

1Cam Ward to be 1st quarterback off the board“I'm solid with cam Ward being number one.”
2Jaxson Dart to be 3rd quarterback off the board“that gap between two and Jackson Dart at three got a little bit closer this week”
3Shedeur Sanders to be 2nd quarterback off the board“Chador for me is still too”
4Quinn Ewers to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)“I don't think he's going to be a first round pick... But if he gets to the second round”
5Kirk Cousins to be picked “mid to later round guy”“Coucord for me, reminded me of Kirk Cousins, a little bit of a mid to later round guy could potentially become a starter.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Cam Ward to be 1st quarterback off the board¹	Position Order Calls	—	100	24.2	+75.8
Jaxson Dart to be 3rd quarterback off the board²	Position Order Calls	—	70.71	29.17	+41.54
Shedeur Sanders to be 2nd quarterback off the board³	Position Order Calls	—	25	37.51	−12.51
Quinn Ewers to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)⁴	Mock Draft Picks	Went 231	0.07	50	—
Kirk Cousins to be picked “mid to later round guy”⁵	Mock Draft Picks	—	—	—	—
5 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 2 misses · 1 waiting			48.9	35.2

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

5 checkable claims — 3 position order calls and 2 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 48.9 out of 100, against 35.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish

1They said

1What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Position Order Calls Cam Ward
Cam Ward to be 1st quarterback off the board
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 24.2
100this call24.2a naive guess75.8better than naive1difficulty+75.8skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 14 at random averages 24.2
skill:
75.8
player:
Cam Ward
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
100
baseline:
24.2
position:
quarterback
class size:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
1
predicted order:
1
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Position Order Calls Jaxson Dart
Jaxson Dart to be 3rd quarterback off the board
VerdictClose
70.71Close · naive 29.17
70.71this call29.17a naive guess41.54better than naive1difficulty+41.54skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 14 at random averages 29.17
skill:
41.54
player:
Jaxson Dart
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
70.71
baseline:
29.17
position:
quarterback
class size:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
2
predicted order:
3
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Position Order Calls Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders to be 2nd quarterback off the board
VerdictMiss
25Miss · naive 37.51
25this call37.51a naive guess−12.51worse than naive1difficulty−12.51skill
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
naming one of the 14 at random averages 37.51
skill:
−12.51
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
credit halves every two places
accuracy:
25
baseline:
37.51
position:
quarterback
class size:
14
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
actual order:
6
predicted order:
2
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Mock Draft Picks Quinn Ewers
Quinn Ewers to be picked “second round” (picks 33–64)
What happenedWent 231
0.07Miss · naive 50
How this was scored
draft:
2025
naive:
a shuffled mock scores 50
player:
Quinn Ewers
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
0.07
baseline:
50
actual pick:
231
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
pick accuracy:
0.07
predicted pick:
second round (picks 33–64)
weeks left when called:
0
mock ordering score:
only one pick — no order to score
Think this is wrong?
5Mock Draft Picks Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins to be picked “mid to later round guy”
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
48.9naive 35.2

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Tom Pelissero · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Pelissero laid out the Giants' quarterback situation with Jameis Winston starting, said Jayden Daniels likely won't be back when Washington plays the Giants and that Caleb Williams is unlikely to play Monday night, and floated Joey Porter Jr. landing in Dallas and Kirk Cousins being traded in-season.
Tom Pelissero · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Pelissero expects the Raiders to draft Fernando Mendoza first overall, and says Kirk Cousins will be released March 11 while Tua Tagovailoa will be released before March 13 if Miami can't trade them.
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.
Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be the No. 1 overall pick and land with the Raiders, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta.

More position order calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Joe Marino · Position Order Calls · Arvell Reese · Hit 100
Marino stacks 14 inside linebackers in the 2026 NFL draft class and assigns each a round-value grade, with Sonny Styles first (top-10 grade) and Anthony Hill third; they say Hill would be their preferred pick if Buffalo takes a linebacker at No. 26.
Ian Rapoport · Position Order Calls · Tetairoa McMillan · Close 71
Rapoport said Travis Hunter is likely the pick at No. 2 for the Browns, that Shedeur Sanders is in play at No. 3, and predicted Tetairoa McMillan would be the first receiver drafted. They also expected Brock Purdy's next deal to land around $50 million per year with Dak Prescott remaining the only quarterback above $60 million.
Peter Schrager · Position Order Calls · Tetairoa McMillan · Close 71
Schrager laid out their top 10 prospects entering the 2025 combine, with Travis Hunter first, Abdul Carter second and Tyler Warren third, and attached draft-range calls to several of them — Will Johnson in the first round, Mason Graham a top-five pick, Ashton Jeanty a first-rounder, Tyler Warren not escaping the top ten, and Cam Ward a top-five to top-ten pick who will start as a rookie.
Matty Lane · Position Order Calls · Spencer Fano · Hit 100
Maddie Lane said Spencer Fano is clearly the first tackle off the board, that the top four players in their mock will be four of the first five picks, that Malik Mohammed goes ahead of Igbunosin, and that Blake Miller would beat out Jalen Moore for the Chiefs' starting job.
Nick Shook · Position Order Calls · Francis Mauigoa · Close 71
Shook walks through their full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three.
Daniel Jeremiah · Position Order Calls · Spencer Fano · Close 71
Jeremiah's Mock Draft 3.0, discussed pick by pick: Mendoza first overall, Arvell Reese to the Jets at 2, Francis Mauigoa to the Cardinals at 3, Jeremiyah Love to the Titans at 4, Sonny Styles to the Giants at 5, and on through the first round.