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Jay StewartJun 21, 2025

Jay Stu insisted Justin Herbert is a top-ten quarterback.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

92Hit · out of 100
Finished #9What happenedcalled #10 · by passing yards
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
91.67This callout of 100
−16.67Skillafter difficulty

What Jay Stewart said

Absolutely? Herbert's the top ten guy.
Our reading: Justin Herbert to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards
The episode
Covino & Rich - Picking Apart a Top 10 QB List
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJun 21, 2025
  2. GradedAug 7, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

The call scored 91.7 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

positional finish
10They said
9What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. Positional FinishesJustin HerbertLos Angeles Chargers

    Justin Herbert to finish top 10 at his position, by passing yards

    What happenedFinished #9called #10 · by passing yards
    91.67Hit · naive 100
    91.67this call100a naive guess−8.33worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    −16.67
    player:
    Justin Herbert
    season:
    2025
    zero credit this far off:
    12
    accuracy:
    91.67
    baseline:
    100
    position:
    QB
    ranked by:
    passing yards
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    where he finished last season
    weeks in the season:
    18
    naive finish:
    9
    actual finish:
    9
    weeks left when called:
    18
    predicted finish:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

Others on the same people

More positional finishes

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.