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Aaron McIntireOct 23, 2026

Asked who wins Michigan's Senate race, McIntyre picked Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace ShowHear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Abdul El-Sayed wonWhat happenedcalled Mike Rogers
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−101Skillafter difficulty

What Aaron McIntire said

Who wins the Michigan senate race? Aaron, Mike Rogers or El Sayed? Mike Rogers.
Our reading: Mike Rogers to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
Where it was said
Steve Deace Show
The episode
Why Michigan's Senate Race Could Be THE Defining Race of the Midterms | 10/23/26
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidOct 23
  2. Election DayNov 3
  3. GradedNov 10

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Race Winners

    Mike Rogers to win the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan

    What happenedAbdul El-Sayed woncalled Mike Rogers
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.01difficulty−101skill
    How this was scored
    right:
    no
    race:
    2026-senate-mi
    election year:
    2026
    skill:
    −101
    topic:
    elections
    held going in by:
    Democratic
    result from:
    wikipedia-2026
    who won:
    Abdul El-Sayed
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    race name:
    2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan
    decided in the:
    general
    they said:
    Mike Rogers
    days before the vote when called:
    10
    difficulty:
    1.01
    the winner's party:
    Democratic
    the naive guess:
    the party holding the seat keeps it
    Election Day:
    2026-11-03
    the result is:
    called
    the party they named:
    Republican
    Think this is wrong?

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